Brazil · Serie A

Santos vs Mirassol

Kick-off 22:30 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

69% confidence

Santos 68.5% Draw 15.1% Mirassol 16.4%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Mirassol: 7 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.5%

Exact-score model probability

Santos

W L D L W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 11:10 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.67

Mirassol

L L W D W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Santos win68.5%

Draw15.1%

Mirassol win16.4%

Over 1.5 goals97.1%

Over 2.5 goals89.3%

Over 3.5 goals76.5%

Both teams to score81.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.4%

HT Over 0.5

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.585.4%

Goal in Both Halves85.4%

Home or Away (12)85.0%

Home or Draw (1X)82.4%

Draw No Bet - Home80.4%

Home Win68.3%

Draw or Away (X2)30.8%

Draw No Bet - Away19.6%

Away Win16.7%

Draw14.1%

Exactly 1 Goal2.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals95.8%

Over 2.5 Goals88.5%

Over 3.5 Goals75.8%

4+ Goals75.8%

Over 4.5 Goals59.1%

Under 5.5 Goals58.4%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Over 5.5 Goals41.6%

Under 4.5 Goals40.9%

2-4 Goals36.7%

3-4 Goals29.4%

Under 3.5 Goals24.2%

1-3 Goals22.8%

2-3 Goals20.0%

Exactly 3 Goals12.7%

Under 2.5 Goals11.5%

1-2 Goals10.1%

Exactly 2 Goals7.3%

Under 1.5 Goals4.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

Away Team to Score82.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.1%

Home Clean Sheet16.5%

Home Win to Nil16.0%

Away Clean Sheet3.2%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Home Over 1.584.9%

Away Over 0.582.5%

Home Over 2.566.0%

Home 3+ Goals66.0%

Away Over 1.552.9%

Away Exactly 129.6%

Away Exactly 226.5%

Away Over 2.526.4%

Away 3+ Goals26.4%

Home Exactly 218.9%

Away Exactly 016.5%

Home Exactly 111.0%

Home Exactly 03.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)79.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away79.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)68.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)65.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away65.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)50.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home50.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)48.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away48.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)33.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home33.5%

Home to win by 3+33.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)30.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away30.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home19.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 117.4%

Home to win by 217.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home9.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.1%

Away to win by 19.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 24.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.0%

Away to win by 3+3.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.576.6%

Home & Over 2.563.3%

Home & BTTS52.3%

Home & No BTTS16.0%

Away & Over 2.514.9%

Away & BTTS14.0%

Draw & BTTS13.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.9%

Draw & Over 2.510.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.3%

Home & Under 2.55.0%

Draw & Under 2.53.8%

BTTS & Under 2.53.3%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.51.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.5%

HT Over 1.568.2%

HT Home Win55.0%

2nd Half More Goals50.1%

HT/FT Home/Home48.7%

HT Both Teams Score43.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.8%

HT Draw25.6%

HT Away Win19.4%

Equal Goals Each Half17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.0%

HT/FT Away/Away9.7%

HT Under 0.59.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.7%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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