Brazil · Serie A

Santos vs Palmeiras

Full time · 0:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

39% confidence

Santos 33.2% Draw 28.2% Palmeiras 38.6%

Over 2.5 - 54% BTTS - 59%

✓ Pick was correct (0:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Palmeiras: 14 points versus 16 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.8%

Exact-score model probability

Santos

D W D W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 11:7 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.17

Palmeiras

W W W W D W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 11:1 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.17

Head to head · last 1

Santos 0wins ·1 draws ·Palmeiras 0wins

Santos 1-1 PalmeirasMay 2, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Santos win33.2%

Draw28.2%

Palmeiras win38.6%

Over 1.5 goals78.8%

Over 2.5 goals53.6%

Over 3.5 goals31.3%

Both teams to score58.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

84.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

84.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

84.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.9%

Draw or Away (X2)65.2%

Home or Draw (1X)59.9%

Both Halves Over 0.556.7%

Goal in Both Halves56.7%

Draw No Bet - Away53.6%

Draw No Bet - Home46.4%

Away Win40.1%

Home Win34.8%

Draw25.1%

Exactly 1 Goal16.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.0%

Under 5.5 Goals93.3%

Under 4.5 Goals84.4%

Over 1.5 Goals77.3%

Under 3.5 Goals68.7%

1-3 Goals62.8%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals46.4%

2-3 Goals46.0%

1-2 Goals40.5%

3-4 Goals38.0%

Over 3.5 Goals31.3%

4+ Goals31.3%

Exactly 2 Goals23.7%

Under 1.5 Goals22.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals15.6%

Over 5.5 Goals6.7%

Under 0.5 Goals6.0%

Exactly 0 Goals5.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score77.0%

Home Team to Score74.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)57.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)42.9%

Away Clean Sheet25.9%

Home Clean Sheet23.0%

Away Win to Nil19.9%

Home Win to Nil17.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.577.0%

Home Over 0.574.1%

Away Over 1.543.2%

Home Over 1.539.1%

Home Exactly 135.0%

Away Exactly 133.8%

Home Exactly 025.9%

Away Exactly 224.8%

Home Exactly 223.6%

Away Exactly 023.0%

Away Over 2.518.4%

Away 3+ Goals18.4%

Home Over 2.515.5%

Home 3+ Goals15.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)80.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home80.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)65.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away65.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)59.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home59.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)34.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.8%

Away to win by 120.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.2%

Home to win by 119.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)15.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home15.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.9%

Away to win by 211.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.1%

Home to win by 210.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.4%

Away to win by 3+7.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.5%

Home to win by 3+5.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.545.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.534.6%

Away & Over 2.524.9%

Home & Over 2.521.3%

Away & BTTS20.2%

Away & No BTTS19.9%

Draw & BTTS19.2%

Draw & Under 2.517.8%

Home & BTTS17.7%

Home & No BTTS17.0%

Away & Under 2.515.2%

Home & Under 2.513.5%

BTTS & Under 2.511.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.3%

Draw & Over 2.57.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.9%

HT Under 1.563.8%

2nd Half More Goals43.9%

HT Draw40.6%

HT Over 1.536.2%

HT Away Win31.4%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Home Win28.1%

HT Under 0.528.1%

Equal Goals Each Half24.9%

HT/FT Away/Away23.9%

HT Both Teams Score22.1%

HT/FT Home/Home20.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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