Italy · Serie A

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina

Kick-off 18:30 · Mon, Nov 2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Sassuolo 41.5% Draw 25.2% Fiorentina 33.3%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 95%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

77%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.2%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Fiorentina: 4 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.2%

Exact-score model probability

Sassuolo

L L L D L W

Form 1-1-4 Goals 9:17 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.83

Fiorentina

D L L L D W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 10:12 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Sassuolo 2wins ·1 draws ·Fiorentina 2wins

Sassuolo 0-0 FiorentinaApr 26, 2026

Sassuolo 3-1 FiorentinaDec 6, 2025

Sassuolo 1-5 FiorentinaApr 28, 2024

Sassuolo 1-0 FiorentinaJan 6, 2024

Sassuolo 1-3 FiorentinaJun 2, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sassuolo win41.5%

Draw25.2%

Fiorentina win33.3%

Over 1.5 goals77.0%

Over 2.5 goals98.4%

Over 3.5 goals30.9%

Both teams to score95.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Halves Over 0.5

90.6%

Goal in Both Halves

90.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.590.6%

Goal in Both Halves90.6%

Home or Away (12)82.9%

Home or Draw (1X)65.3%

Draw No Bet - Home59.4%

Draw or Away (X2)49.8%

Home Win49.2%

Draw No Bet - Away40.6%

Away Win33.7%

Draw16.1%

Exactly 1 Goal1.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals97.5%

Over 2.5 Goals93.5%

Over 3.5 Goals85.2%

4+ Goals85.2%

Over 4.5 Goals72.5%

Over 5.5 Goals56.9%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Under 5.5 Goals43.1%

Under 4.5 Goals27.5%

2-4 Goals25.0%

3-4 Goals20.9%

Under 3.5 Goals14.8%

1-3 Goals13.6%

2-3 Goals12.3%

Exactly 3 Goals8.2%

Under 2.5 Goals6.5%

1-2 Goals5.3%

Exactly 2 Goals4.0%

Under 1.5 Goals2.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.5%

Away Team to Score93.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)89.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)10.2%

Home Clean Sheet5.9%

Home Win to Nil5.7%

Away Clean Sheet3.6%

Away Win to Nil3.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.5%

Away Over 0.593.1%

Home Over 1.583.6%

Away Over 1.576.4%

Home Over 2.563.8%

Home 3+ Goals63.8%

Away Over 2.552.9%

Away 3+ Goals52.9%

Away Exactly 223.5%

Home Exactly 219.8%

Away Exactly 116.7%

Home Exactly 111.9%

Away Exactly 05.9%

Home Exactly 03.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)78.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home78.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)65.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away65.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)49.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away49.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)49.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)33.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)33.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home33.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.8%

Home to win by 3+19.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 116.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.6%

Away to win by 113.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.4%

Home to win by 213.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.5%

Away to win by 3+10.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.6%

Away to win by 29.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.6%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.587.8%

Home & Over 2.547.3%

Home & BTTS43.5%

Away & Over 2.532.2%

Away & BTTS30.3%

Draw & BTTS15.9%

Draw & Over 2.513.9%

Home & No BTTS5.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.5%

Away & No BTTS3.3%

Draw & Under 2.52.2%

BTTS & Under 2.52.0%

Home & Under 2.51.9%

Away & Under 2.51.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.7%

HT Over 1.576.4%

HT Both Teams Score55.9%

2nd Half More Goals51.6%

HT Home Win42.6%

HT/FT Home/Home33.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Away Win32.1%

HT Draw25.2%

HT Under 1.523.6%

HT/FT Away/Away21.3%

Equal Goals Each Half16.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.3%

HT Under 0.56.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.7%

HT/FT Away/Home5.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away4.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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