Italy · Serie A

Sassuolo vs Lazio

Kick-off 18:30 · Tue, Oct 27

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Sassuolo 29.4% Draw 26.5% Lazio 44.1%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

82%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lazio: 5 points versus 16 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.3%

Exact-score model probability

Sassuolo

L L D L W D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 9:13 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.17

Lazio

W W W W D W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 14:5 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Sassuolo 1wins ·1 draws ·Lazio 3wins

Sassuolo 1-2 LazioMar 9, 2026

Sassuolo 1-0 LazioSep 14, 2025

Sassuolo 1-1 LazioMay 26, 2024

Sassuolo 0-2 LazioOct 21, 2023

Sassuolo 0-2 LazioMay 3, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sassuolo win29.4%

Draw26.5%

Lazio win44.1%

Over 1.5 goals72.2%

Over 2.5 goals82.1%

Over 3.5 goals25.2%

Both teams to score71.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

87.3%

Draw or Away (X2)

86.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

86.4%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)86.4%

Draw No Bet - Away83.8%

Home or Away (12)83.2%

Away Win69.8%

Both Halves Over 0.569.1%

Goal in Both Halves69.1%

Home or Draw (1X)30.1%

Draw16.6%

Draw No Bet - Home16.2%

Home Win13.5%

Exactly 1 Goal9.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.1%

Over 1.5 Goals87.3%

Under 5.5 Goals84.5%

Under 4.5 Goals70.8%

Over 2.5 Goals69.6%

2-4 Goals58.1%

Under 3.5 Goals51.6%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

1-3 Goals48.8%

Over 3.5 Goals48.4%

4+ Goals48.4%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals38.9%

Under 2.5 Goals30.4%

Over 4.5 Goals29.2%

1-2 Goals27.5%

Exactly 3 Goals21.2%

Exactly 2 Goals17.7%

Over 5.5 Goals15.5%

Under 1.5 Goals12.7%

Under 0.5 Goals2.9%

Exactly 0 Goals2.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score92.1%

Home Team to Score64.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.2%

Away Clean Sheet35.0%

Away Win to Nil32.3%

Home Clean Sheet7.8%

Home Win to Nil5.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.592.1%

Away Over 1.572.2%

Home Over 0.564.9%

Away Over 2.546.8%

Away 3+ Goals46.8%

Home Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 035.0%

Home Over 1.528.2%

Away Exactly 225.4%

Away Exactly 119.9%

Home Exactly 219.2%

Home Over 2.58.9%

Home 3+ Goals8.9%

Away Exactly 07.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away95.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home93.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)86.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away86.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)85.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home85.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)71.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home71.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)69.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)51.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home51.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)48.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away48.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)30.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home30.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)28.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away28.2%

Away to win by 3+28.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.5%

Away to win by 121.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw20.0%

Away to win by 220.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away14.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw8.8%

Home to win by 18.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away6.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home4.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.4%

Home to win by 23.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.3%

Home to win by 3+1.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.553.9%

BTTS & Over 2.552.5%

Away & BTTS37.5%

Away & No BTTS32.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.1%

Away & Under 2.515.9%

Draw & BTTS13.9%

Draw & Under 2.510.0%

Home & Over 2.59.1%

Home & BTTS8.4%

BTTS & Under 2.57.3%

Draw & Over 2.56.6%

Home & No BTTS5.1%

Home & Under 2.54.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.2%

HT Away Win52.8%

HT Under 1.551.8%

HT Over 1.548.2%

HT/FT Away/Away47.7%

2nd Half More Goals46.5%

HT Draw32.0%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score25.7%

Equal Goals Each Half21.6%

HT Under 0.519.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away18.4%

HT Home Win15.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.8%

HT/FT Home/Home7.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Away3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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