Portugal · Primeira Liga

SC Braga vs Sporting CP

Kick-off 20:15 · Fri, Oct 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

SC Braga 28.1% Draw 23.3% Sporting CP 48.6%

Over 2.5 - 58% BTTS - 51%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Sporting CP: 13 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.1%

Exact-score model probability

SC Braga

D W L W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 7:3 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.5

Sporting CP

D D W W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 15:5 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

SC Braga 0wins ·3 draws ·Sporting CP 2wins

SC Braga 2-2 Sporting CPMar 7, 2026

SC Braga 1-1 Sporting CPOct 5, 2025

SC Braga 1-1 Sporting CPApr 7, 2025

SC Braga 2-4 Sporting CPNov 10, 2024

SC Braga 0-5 Sporting CPFeb 11, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

SC Braga win28.1%

Draw23.3%

Sporting CP win48.6%

Over 1.5 goals80.2%

Over 2.5 goals58.1%

Over 3.5 goals35.7%

Both teams to score50.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.0%

Home or Draw (1X)67.5%

Both Halves Over 0.560.1%

Goal in Both Halves60.1%

Draw No Bet - Home57.3%

Draw or Away (X2)56.5%

Home Win43.5%

Draw No Bet - Away42.7%

Away Win32.5%

Draw24.0%

Exactly 1 Goal14.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.1%

Under 5.5 Goals91.5%

Under 4.5 Goals81.3%

Over 1.5 Goals80.3%

Under 3.5 Goals64.4%

2-4 Goals61.6%

1-3 Goals59.5%

Over 2.5 Goals58.0%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.7%

Under 2.5 Goals42.0%

3-4 Goals39.3%

1-2 Goals37.1%

Over 3.5 Goals35.6%

4+ Goals35.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals22.3%

Under 1.5 Goals19.7%

Over 4.5 Goals18.7%

Over 5.5 Goals8.5%

Under 0.5 Goals4.9%

Exactly 0 Goals4.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score80.5%

Away Team to Score74.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)39.7%

Home Clean Sheet25.1%

Home Win to Nil20.2%

Away Clean Sheet19.5%

Away Win to Nil14.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.580.5%

Away Over 0.574.9%

Home Over 1.548.6%

Away Over 1.540.2%

Away Exactly 134.7%

Home Exactly 131.9%

Home Exactly 226.1%

Away Exactly 025.1%

Away Exactly 224.0%

Home Over 2.522.5%

Home 3+ Goals22.5%

Home Exactly 019.5%

Away Over 2.516.2%

Away 3+ Goals16.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)77.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away77.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)67.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home67.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)43.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)32.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)22.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home22.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.2%

Home to win by 121.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.9%

Away to win by 117.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.1%

Home to win by 213.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.4%

Away to win by 29.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home9.2%

Home to win by 3+9.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.2%

Away to win by 3+5.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.549.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.530.9%

Home & Over 2.529.0%

Home & BTTS23.3%

Away & Over 2.521.0%

Home & No BTTS20.2%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Away & BTTS17.9%

Draw & Under 2.516.0%

Away & No BTTS14.6%

Home & Under 2.514.5%

Away & Under 2.511.5%

BTTS & Under 2.511.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.8%

Draw & Over 2.58.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.3%

HT Under 1.560.7%

2nd Half More Goals44.6%

HT Over 1.539.3%

HT Draw38.9%

HT Home Win34.0%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT Away Win27.1%

HT/FT Home/Home26.4%

HT Under 0.525.7%

HT Both Teams Score24.1%

Equal Goals Each Half23.9%

HT/FT Away/Away19.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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