Germany · Bundesliga

SC Freiburg vs Bayern München

Full time · 1:3

📊 Our Prediction

Over 1.5 Goals

68% confidence

SC Freiburg 14.8% Draw 16.9% Bayern München 68.1%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 95%

✓ Pick was correct (1:3)

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

91%

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 1.5 Goals is rated at 90.7% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to SC Freiburg: 13 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 6.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Over 1.5 Goals

Over 1.5 Goals probability

90.7%

Chance of 2+ total goals

SC Freiburg high-scoring games

83.3%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Bayern München high-scoring games

100%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

SC Freiburg

L W D W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 15:6 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1

Bayern München

D W D D W W

Form 3-3-0 Goals 22:9 Scored/game 3.67 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 4

SC Freiburg 0wins ·0 draws ·Bayern München 4wins

SC Freiburg 2-3 Bayern MünchenApr 4, 2026

SC Freiburg 2-6 Bayern MünchenNov 22, 2025

SC Freiburg 1-2 Bayern MünchenJan 25, 2025

SC Freiburg 0-2 Bayern MünchenSep 1, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

SC Freiburg win14.8%

Draw16.9%

Bayern München win68.1%

Over 1.5 goals90.7%

Over 2.5 goals98.1%

Over 3.5 goals55.9%

Both teams to score95.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Teams Score (GG)

91.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.592.2%

Goal in Both Halves92.2%

Home or Away (12)82.8%

Draw or Away (X2)58.1%

Home or Draw (1X)56.4%

Draw No Bet - Away51.0%

Draw No Bet - Home49.0%

Away Win42.2%

Home Win40.5%

Draw15.9%

Exactly 1 Goal0.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals97.6%

Over 2.5 Goals94.5%

Over 3.5 Goals87.8%

4+ Goals87.8%

Over 4.5 Goals76.9%

Over 5.5 Goals62.5%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Under 5.5 Goals37.5%

Under 4.5 Goals23.1%

2-4 Goals20.8%

3-4 Goals17.7%

Under 3.5 Goals12.2%

1-3 Goals10.7%

2-3 Goals9.8%

Exactly 3 Goals6.7%

Under 2.5 Goals5.5%

1-2 Goals4.0%

Exactly 2 Goals3.1%

Under 1.5 Goals2.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.0%

Home Team to Score94.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)91.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)8.7%

Away Clean Sheet3.9%

Home Clean Sheet3.7%

Away Win to Nil3.7%

Home Win to Nil3.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.0%

Home Over 0.594.8%

Away Over 1.583.0%

Home Over 1.582.3%

Away Over 2.563.0%

Away 3+ Goals63.0%

Home Over 2.561.9%

Home 3+ Goals61.9%

Home Exactly 220.4%

Away Exactly 219.9%

Home Exactly 112.6%

Away Exactly 112.1%

Home Exactly 03.9%

Away Exactly 03.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home90.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)83.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away83.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)82.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home82.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)71.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home71.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)58.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away58.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)56.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home56.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)42.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)40.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)27.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away27.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)15.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away15.8%

Away to win by 3+15.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.8%

Home to win by 3+14.8%

Away to win by 114.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 114.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.6%

Away to win by 211.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.2%

Home to win by 211.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.589.8%

Away & Over 2.541.0%

Home & Over 2.539.3%

Away & BTTS38.5%

Home & BTTS37.0%

Draw & BTTS15.8%

Draw & Over 2.514.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.54.8%

Away & No BTTS3.7%

Home & No BTTS3.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.6%

Draw & Under 2.51.7%

BTTS & Under 2.51.5%

Away & Under 2.51.3%

Home & Under 2.51.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.7%

HT Over 1.579.3%

HT Both Teams Score59.4%

2nd Half More Goals52.2%

HT Away Win38.3%

HT Home Win37.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Away/Away27.9%

HT/FT Home/Home26.6%

HT Draw24.5%

HT Under 1.520.7%

Equal Goals Each Half15.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.4%

HT Under 0.55.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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