Germany · Bundesliga

SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen

Kick-off 14:30 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

SC Freiburg 51.5% Draw 25.5% Werder Bremen 23.1%

Over 2.5 - 86% BTTS - 82%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

82%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to SC Freiburg: 10 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.6%

Exact-score model probability

SC Freiburg

W L W L W D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 13:10 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Werder Bremen

L L L D W L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:11 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

SC Freiburg 4wins ·0 draws ·Werder Bremen 1wins

SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder BremenFeb 7, 2026

SC Freiburg 3-0 Werder BremenSep 20, 2025

SC Freiburg 5-0 Werder BremenFeb 21, 2025

SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder BremenOct 5, 2024

SC Freiburg 1-3 Werder BremenJan 27, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

SC Freiburg win51.5%

Draw25.5%

Werder Bremen win23.1%

Over 1.5 goals77.7%

Over 2.5 goals86.2%

Over 3.5 goals30.9%

Both teams to score81.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.4%

Over 1.5 Goals

90.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.0%

Home or Draw (1X)80.0%

Draw No Bet - Home75.8%

Both Halves Over 0.574.6%

Goal in Both Halves74.6%

Home Win62.2%

Draw or Away (X2)37.7%

Draw No Bet - Away24.2%

Away Win19.9%

Draw17.8%

Exactly 1 Goal7.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals90.9%

Under 5.5 Goals78.2%

Over 2.5 Goals76.5%

Under 4.5 Goals62.5%

Over 3.5 Goals57.1%

4+ Goals57.1%

2-4 Goals53.4%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals42.9%

1-3 Goals41.0%

3-4 Goals38.9%

Over 4.5 Goals37.5%

2-3 Goals33.8%

Under 2.5 Goals23.5%

Over 5.5 Goals21.8%

1-2 Goals21.6%

Exactly 3 Goals19.4%

Exactly 2 Goals14.4%

Under 1.5 Goals9.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.4%

Away Team to Score76.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.6%

Home Clean Sheet23.7%

Home Win to Nil21.9%

Away Clean Sheet7.5%

Away Win to Nil5.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.4%

Away Over 0.576.2%

Home Over 1.572.9%

Home Over 2.547.8%

Home 3+ Goals47.8%

Away Over 1.542.1%

Away Exactly 134.1%

Home Exactly 225.2%

Away Exactly 224.5%

Away Exactly 023.7%

Home Exactly 119.4%

Away Over 2.517.6%

Away 3+ Goals17.6%

Home Exactly 07.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)76.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away76.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)62.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)58.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away58.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)41.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home41.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)37.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away37.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.8%

Home to win by 3+23.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.5%

Home to win by 120.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 217.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.4%

Away to win by 111.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.5%

Away to win by 25.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.9%

Away to win by 3+2.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.563.8%

Home & Over 2.551.6%

Home & BTTS40.3%

Home & No BTTS21.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.8%

Draw & BTTS16.1%

Away & Over 2.515.5%

Away & BTTS14.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.6%

Home & Under 2.510.6%

Draw & Over 2.59.4%

Draw & Under 2.58.4%

BTTS & Under 2.56.6%

Away & No BTTS5.7%

Away & Under 2.54.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.7%

HT Over 1.554.1%

HT Home Win48.3%

2nd Half More Goals47.6%

HT Under 1.545.9%

HT/FT Home/Home41.7%

HT Both Teams Score32.8%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw31.2%

HT Away Win20.5%

Equal Goals Each Half20.3%

HT Under 0.516.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.2%

HT/FT Away/Away11.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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