Spain · La Liga

Sevilla vs Alaves

Kick-off 21:00 · Fri, Nov 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Sevilla 48.6% Draw 25.8% Alaves 25.6%

Over 2.5 - 50% BTTS - 76%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

76%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

75%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.7%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Sevilla: 7 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Sevilla 1 wins, 2 draws, Alaves 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.7%

Exact-score model probability

Sevilla

L W L D L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:13 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.17

Alaves

L D L L D L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 4:12 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Sevilla 1wins ·2 draws ·Alaves 2wins

Sevilla 1-1 AlavesFeb 14, 2026

Sevilla 2-1 AlavesSep 20, 2025

Sevilla 1-1 AlavesApr 20, 2025

Sevilla 1-2 AlavesSep 20, 2024

Sevilla 2-3 AlavesJan 12, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sevilla win48.6%

Draw25.8%

Alaves win25.6%

Over 1.5 goals75.3%

Over 2.5 goals50.3%

Over 3.5 goals28.3%

Both teams to score76.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.4%

Both Halves Over 0.577.6%

Goal in Both Halves77.6%

Home or Draw (1X)74.6%

Draw No Bet - Home68.9%

Home Win56.1%

Draw or Away (X2)43.7%

Draw No Bet - Away31.1%

Away Win25.3%

Draw18.5%

Exactly 1 Goal5.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals92.7%

Over 2.5 Goals80.2%

Under 5.5 Goals73.7%

Over 3.5 Goals62.3%

4+ Goals62.3%

Under 4.5 Goals57.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals49.7%

Over 4.5 Goals43.0%

Under 3.5 Goals37.7%

3-4 Goals37.2%

1-3 Goals36.2%

2-3 Goals30.4%

Over 5.5 Goals26.3%

Under 2.5 Goals19.8%

1-2 Goals18.3%

Exactly 3 Goals17.9%

Exactly 2 Goals12.5%

Under 1.5 Goals7.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.3%

Away Team to Score82.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)75.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.1%

Home Clean Sheet17.7%

Home Win to Nil16.4%

Away Clean Sheet7.6%

Away Win to Nil6.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.3%

Away Over 0.582.1%

Home Over 1.572.7%

Away Over 1.551.5%

Home Over 2.547.5%

Home 3+ Goals47.5%

Away Exactly 130.6%

Away Exactly 226.5%

Home Exactly 225.2%

Away Over 2.525.0%

Away 3+ Goals25.0%

Home Exactly 119.6%

Away Exactly 017.7%

Home Exactly 07.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)63.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away63.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)56.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)43.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away43.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)36.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home36.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.3%

Home to win by 3+20.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.7%

Home to win by 119.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 216.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.2%

Away to win by 113.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.3%

Away to win by 27.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.8%

Away to win by 3+4.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.9%

Home & Over 2.548.2%

Home & BTTS39.7%

Away & Over 2.520.9%

Away & BTTS19.0%

Draw & BTTS17.1%

Home & No BTTS16.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.6%

Draw & Over 2.511.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.3%

Home & Under 2.57.9%

Draw & Under 2.57.3%

Away & No BTTS6.2%

BTTS & Under 2.56.0%

Away & Under 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.6%

HT Over 1.557.7%

2nd Half More Goals48.2%

HT Home Win44.7%

HT Under 1.542.3%

HT Both Teams Score37.1%

HT/FT Home/Home37.0%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw30.6%

HT Away Win24.6%

Equal Goals Each Half19.5%

HT/FT Away/Away15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.6%

HT Under 0.514.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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