Spain · La Liga

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid

Kick-off 20:30 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Sevilla 29.7% Draw 24.9% Atletico Madrid 45.4%

Over 2.5 - 52% BTTS - 67%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

76%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Sevilla: 12 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.1%

Exact-score model probability

Sevilla

W W L L W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Atletico Madrid

D W L W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Sevilla 2wins ·0 draws ·Atletico Madrid 3wins

Sevilla 2-1 Atletico MadridApr 11, 2026

Sevilla 0-3 Atletico MadridNov 1, 2025

Sevilla 1-2 Atletico MadridApr 6, 2025

Sevilla 3-4 Atletico MadridDec 8, 2024

Sevilla 1-0 Atletico MadridFeb 11, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sevilla win29.7%

Draw24.9%

Atletico Madrid win45.4%

Over 1.5 goals76.3%

Over 2.5 goals52.3%

Over 3.5 goals30.1%

Both teams to score67.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

87.6%

Home Team to Score

87.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.7%

Home or Draw (1X)72.4%

Both Halves Over 0.568.0%

Goal in Both Halves68.0%

Draw No Bet - Home65.0%

Home Win51.1%

Draw or Away (X2)48.9%

Draw No Bet - Away35.0%

Away Win27.5%

Draw21.3%

Exactly 1 Goal10.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.0%

Over 1.5 Goals86.6%

Under 5.5 Goals85.5%

Under 4.5 Goals72.2%

Over 2.5 Goals68.3%

2-4 Goals58.8%

Under 3.5 Goals53.3%

1-3 Goals50.3%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals46.7%

4+ Goals46.7%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.9%

Under 2.5 Goals31.7%

1-2 Goals28.8%

Over 4.5 Goals27.8%

Exactly 3 Goals21.5%

Exactly 2 Goals18.3%

Over 5.5 Goals14.5%

Under 1.5 Goals13.4%

Under 0.5 Goals3.0%

Exactly 0 Goals3.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.1%

Away Team to Score76.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.0%

Home Clean Sheet23.0%

Home Win to Nil20.1%

Away Clean Sheet12.8%

Away Win to Nil9.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.1%

Away Over 0.576.9%

Home Over 1.560.8%

Away Over 1.543.1%

Away Exactly 133.8%

Home Over 2.533.7%

Home 3+ Goals33.7%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 126.4%

Away Exactly 224.8%

Away Exactly 023.0%

Away Over 2.518.3%

Away 3+ Goals18.3%

Home Exactly 012.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)70.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away70.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)51.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)48.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away48.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.2%

Home to win by 121.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.4%

Home to win by 215.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.1%

Away to win by 115.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.6%

Home to win by 3+14.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.9%

Away to win by 27.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.5%

Away to win by 3+4.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.558.1%

Home & Over 2.538.8%

Home & BTTS31.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.522.8%

Home & No BTTS20.1%

Away & Over 2.520.0%

Draw & BTTS18.4%

Away & BTTS17.6%

Home & Under 2.512.3%

Draw & Under 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.1%

Away & No BTTS9.9%

Draw & Over 2.59.4%

BTTS & Under 2.58.9%

Away & Under 2.57.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.5%

HT Under 1.553.0%

HT Over 1.547.0%

2nd Half More Goals46.2%

HT Home Win40.0%

HT Draw35.1%

HT/FT Home/Home32.4%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score29.1%

HT Away Win24.9%

Equal Goals Each Half21.9%

HT Under 0.520.5%

HT/FT Away/Away16.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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