Spain · La Liga

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano

Kick-off 20:30 · Sat, Aug 15

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Sevilla 41.5% Draw 28.8% Rayo Vallecano 29.7%

Over 2.5 - 37% BTTS - 40%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 14.3%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Rayo Vallecano: 9 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Sevilla 3 wins, 2 draws, Rayo Vallecano 0 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

14.3%

Exact-score model probability

Sevilla

L L W W W L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Rayo Vallecano

L W W D D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 7:4 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 5

Sevilla 3wins ·2 draws ·Rayo Vallecano 0wins

Sevilla 1-1 Rayo VallecanoMar 8, 2026

Sevilla 1-0 Rayo VallecanoSep 28, 2025

Sevilla 1-1 Rayo VallecanoMar 1, 2025

Sevilla 1-0 Rayo VallecanoNov 24, 2024

Sevilla 2-1 Rayo VallecanoFeb 5, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sevilla win41.5%

Draw28.8%

Rayo Vallecano win29.7%

Over 1.5 goals63.4%

Over 2.5 goals36.7%

Over 3.5 goals17.3%

Both teams to score40.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

90.4%

Over 0.5 Goals

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)72.3%

Home or Away (12)71.0%

Draw No Bet - Away61.0%

Home or Draw (1X)56.7%

Away Win43.3%

Both Halves Over 0.543.2%

Goal in Both Halves43.2%

Draw No Bet - Home39.0%

Draw29.0%

Home Win27.7%

Exactly 1 Goal25.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.7%

Under 4.5 Goals93.2%

Over 0.5 Goals88.4%

Under 3.5 Goals82.8%

1-3 Goals71.2%

Over 1.5 Goals63.5%

Under 2.5 Goals63.4%

2-4 Goals56.7%

1-2 Goals51.9%

Total Goals Even50.7%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

2-3 Goals46.3%

Over 2.5 Goals36.6%

Under 1.5 Goals36.5%

3-4 Goals29.8%

Exactly 2 Goals26.9%

Exactly 3 Goals19.3%

Over 3.5 Goals17.2%

4+ Goals17.2%

Under 0.5 Goals11.6%

Exactly 0 Goals11.6%

Over 4.5 Goals6.8%

Over 5.5 Goals2.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score70.9%

Home Team to Score60.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)57.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)42.7%

Away Clean Sheet39.7%

Home Clean Sheet29.1%

Away Win to Nil28.1%

Home Win to Nil17.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.570.9%

Home Over 0.560.3%

Home Exactly 039.7%

Home Exactly 136.7%

Away Exactly 135.9%

Away Over 1.534.9%

Away Exactly 029.1%

Home Over 1.523.6%

Away Exactly 222.2%

Home Exactly 216.9%

Away Over 2.512.8%

Away 3+ Goals12.8%

Home Over 2.56.7%

Home 3+ Goals6.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)80.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home80.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)72.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away72.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)56.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home56.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)43.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)27.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.1%

Away to win by 124.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.6%

Away to win by 212.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.1%

Home to win by 27.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.6%

Away to win by 3+6.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.5%

Home to win by 3+2.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.550.2%

BTTS & Over 2.529.6%

Away & No BTTS28.1%

Draw & Under 2.524.7%

Away & Under 2.523.1%

Away & Over 2.520.2%

Home & No BTTS17.6%

Draw & BTTS17.4%

Home & Under 2.515.6%

Away & BTTS15.2%

BTTS & Under 2.513.2%

Home & Over 2.512.1%

Home & BTTS10.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.0%

Draw & Over 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.574.7%

HT Over 0.562.1%

HT Draw47.1%

2nd Half More Goals40.8%

HT Under 0.537.9%

HT Away Win31.2%

1st Half More Goals29.9%

Equal Goals Each Half29.2%

HT Over 1.525.3%

HT/FT Away/Away25.3%

HT Home Win21.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw19.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.2%

HT/FT Home/Home15.3%

HT Both Teams Score14.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

HT/FT Away/Home1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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