Spain · La Liga

Sevilla vs Valencia

Kick-off 20:00 · Fri, Sep 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Sevilla 49.4% Draw 25.6% Valencia 25.1%

Over 2.5 - 48% BTTS - 82%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

82%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 8.4%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Head-to-head record: Sevilla 0 wins, 3 draws, Valencia 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.4%

Exact-score model probability

Sevilla

D L W W L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:8 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Valencia

L L L D W W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:13 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 5

Sevilla 0wins ·3 draws ·Valencia 2wins

Sevilla 0-2 ValenciaMar 21, 2026

Sevilla 1-1 ValenciaDec 7, 2025

Sevilla 0-1 ValenciaApr 11, 2025

Sevilla 1-1 ValenciaJan 11, 2025

Sevilla 0-0 ValenciaFeb 17, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sevilla win49.4%

Draw25.6%

Valencia win25.1%

Over 1.5 goals72.8%

Over 2.5 goals47.5%

Over 3.5 goals25.8%

Both teams to score82.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

88.8%

Over 1.5 Goals

88.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.5%

Both Halves Over 0.570.7%

Goal in Both Halves70.7%

Home or Draw (1X)65.0%

Draw or Away (X2)56.5%

Draw No Bet - Home55.4%

Draw No Bet - Away44.6%

Home Win43.5%

Away Win35.0%

Draw21.5%

Exactly 1 Goal9.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals88.5%

Under 5.5 Goals82.9%

Over 2.5 Goals71.6%

Under 4.5 Goals68.5%

2-4 Goals57.0%

Over 3.5 Goals50.8%

4+ Goals50.8%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals49.2%

1-3 Goals46.7%

3-4 Goals40.1%

2-3 Goals37.6%

Over 4.5 Goals31.5%

Under 2.5 Goals28.4%

1-2 Goals25.9%

Exactly 3 Goals20.8%

Over 5.5 Goals17.1%

Exactly 2 Goals16.8%

Under 1.5 Goals11.5%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals2.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score85.9%

Away Team to Score82.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.0%

Home Clean Sheet17.4%

Home Win to Nil14.9%

Away Clean Sheet14.0%

Away Win to Nil11.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.585.9%

Away Over 0.582.6%

Home Over 1.558.4%

Away Over 1.552.2%

Home Over 2.531.3%

Home 3+ Goals31.3%

Away Exactly 130.4%

Home Exactly 127.6%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Away Over 2.525.6%

Away 3+ Goals25.6%

Away Exactly 017.4%

Home Exactly 014.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)82.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home82.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)75.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away75.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)43.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)35.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)24.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home24.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 119.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)17.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away17.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.2%

Away to win by 117.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.0%

Home to win by 213.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.1%

Home to win by 3+11.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.3%

Away to win by 210.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.4%

Away to win by 3+7.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.562.6%

Home & Over 2.534.0%

Home & BTTS28.6%

Away & Over 2.527.0%

Away & BTTS23.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.9%

Draw & BTTS19.0%

Home & No BTTS14.9%

Away & No BTTS11.6%

Draw & Under 2.510.8%

Draw & Over 2.510.6%

Home & Under 2.59.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.0%

BTTS & Under 2.58.4%

Away & Under 2.58.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.2%

HT Under 1.550.2%

HT Over 1.549.8%

2nd Half More Goals46.8%

HT Home Win35.5%

HT Draw34.4%

HT Both Teams Score32.0%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Away Win30.1%

HT/FT Home/Home27.0%

Equal Goals Each Half21.2%

HT/FT Away/Away21.1%

HT Under 0.518.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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