UEFA Champions League

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Oct 14

📊 Our Prediction

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

88% confidence

Shakhtar Donetsk 1.8% Draw 10.3% AEK Athens FC 87.9%

Over 2.5 - 59% BTTS - 25%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

88%

Draw No Bet - Away

DNB away — draw refunds stake

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 17.8%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to AEK Athens FC: 1 points versus 7 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

17.8%

Exact-score model probability

Shakhtar Donetsk

D L L

Form 0-1-2 Goals 3:5 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

AEK Athens FC

W W D

Form 2-1-0 Goals 5:0 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0

📈 Probability Breakdown

Shakhtar Donetsk win1.8%

Draw10.3%

AEK Athens FC win87.9%

Over 1.5 goals81.7%

Over 2.5 goals59.3%

Over 3.5 goals36.9%

Both teams to score24.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.0%

Home or Away (12)

90.4%

Away Win

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)97.4%

Draw No Bet - Away97.4%

Home or Away (12)90.4%

Away Win88.1%

Both Halves Over 0.561.2%

Goal in Both Halves61.2%

Exactly 1 Goal14.2%

Home or Draw (1X)11.7%

Draw9.3%

Draw No Bet - Home2.6%

Home Win2.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.2%

Under 5.5 Goals91.0%

Over 1.5 Goals81.0%

Under 4.5 Goals80.4%

Under 3.5 Goals63.2%

2-4 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals59.2%

1-3 Goals58.4%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

2-3 Goals44.2%

Under 2.5 Goals40.8%

3-4 Goals39.6%

Over 3.5 Goals36.8%

4+ Goals36.8%

1-2 Goals36.0%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals21.8%

Over 4.5 Goals19.6%

Under 1.5 Goals19.0%

Over 5.5 Goals9.0%

Under 0.5 Goals4.8%

Exactly 0 Goals4.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score93.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)75.8%

Away Clean Sheet73.9%

Away Win to Nil69.3%

Home Team to Score25.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)24.2%

Home Clean Sheet6.2%

Home Win to Nil1.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.593.6%

Away Over 1.576.3%

Home Exactly 073.9%

Away Over 2.552.3%

Away 3+ Goals52.3%

Home Over 0.525.9%

Away Exactly 224.0%

Home Exactly 122.2%

Away Exactly 117.3%

Away Exactly 06.2%

Home Over 1.53.7%

Home Exactly 23.3%

Home Over 2.50.4%

Home 3+ Goals0.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away99.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away97.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)94.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)88.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home87.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)74.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home74.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)69.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away69.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)53.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home53.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)45.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away45.9%

Away to win by 3+45.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)30.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home30.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)25.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away25.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw23.2%

Away to win by 223.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw20.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.9%

Away to win by 118.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw13.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away12.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home11.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw7.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away5.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw2.0%

Home to win by 12.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw0.3%

Home to win by 20.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Home to win by 3+0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & No BTTS69.3%

Away & Over 2.557.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.538.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.536.8%

Away & Under 2.530.6%

BTTS & Over 2.520.4%

Away & BTTS18.8%

Draw & Under 2.58.4%

Draw & BTTS4.7%

BTTS & Under 2.53.8%

Home & Under 2.51.6%

Home & No BTTS1.6%

Draw & Over 2.50.9%

Home & Over 2.50.8%

Home & BTTS0.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.0%

HT Away Win66.6%

HT/FT Away/Away65.3%

HT Under 1.559.7%

2nd Half More Goals44.8%

HT Over 1.540.3%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Draw29.4%

HT Under 0.525.0%

Equal Goals Each Half23.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away21.5%

HT Both Teams Score9.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.9%

HT Home Win3.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home1.1%

HT/FT Home/Home1.1%

HT/FT Away/Home0.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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