UEFA Champions League

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP

Kick-off 18:45 · Tue, Nov 3

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

82% confidence

Shakhtar Donetsk 6.1% Draw 12.1% Sporting CP 81.8%

Over 2.5 - 78% BTTS - 57%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

92%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-3 at 9.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Sporting CP: 4 points versus 10 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.20 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.2%

Exact-score model probability

Shakhtar Donetsk

L W D L L

Form 1-1-3 Goals 6:7 Scored/game 1.2 Conceded/game 1.4

Sporting CP

W L L W W D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 12:8 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Shakhtar Donetsk win6.1%

Draw12.1%

Sporting CP win81.8%

Over 1.5 goals92.3%

Over 2.5 goals77.9%

Over 3.5 goals58.9%

Both teams to score57.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.1%

Home or Away (12)

88.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

85.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)92.7%

Draw No Bet - Away92.5%

Home or Away (12)88.6%

Away Win82.0%

Both Halves Over 0.575.7%

Goal in Both Halves75.7%

Home or Draw (1X)17.4%

Draw10.8%

Draw No Bet - Home7.5%

Home Win6.6%

Exactly 1 Goal6.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals91.1%

Over 2.5 Goals77.4%

Under 5.5 Goals77.1%

Under 4.5 Goals61.0%

Over 3.5 Goals58.5%

4+ Goals58.5%

2-4 Goals52.1%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Under 3.5 Goals41.5%

1-3 Goals39.2%

Over 4.5 Goals39.0%

3-4 Goals38.4%

2-3 Goals32.6%

Over 5.5 Goals22.9%

Under 2.5 Goals22.6%

1-2 Goals20.3%

Exactly 3 Goals18.9%

Exactly 2 Goals13.7%

Under 1.5 Goals8.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.5%

Home Team to Score58.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)44.0%

Away Clean Sheet41.1%

Away Win to Nil39.5%

Home Clean Sheet3.9%

Home Win to Nil2.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.5%

Away Over 1.582.9%

Away Over 2.562.4%

Away 3+ Goals62.4%

Home Over 0.558.3%

Home Exactly 041.1%

Home Exactly 136.3%

Home Over 1.522.0%

Away Exactly 220.5%

Home Exactly 216.0%

Away Exactly 112.6%

Home Over 2.56.0%

Home 3+ Goals6.0%

Away Exactly 03.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)93.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away92.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)85.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home85.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)82.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)72.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home72.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)64.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away64.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)54.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home54.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)44.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away44.6%

Away to win by 3+44.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)34.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home34.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)26.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away26.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw20.1%

Away to win by 220.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw18.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)17.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home17.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.3%

Away to win by 117.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)13.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away13.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw12.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw7.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)6.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away6.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw4.7%

Home to win by 14.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.5%

Home to win by 21.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.4%

Home to win by 3+0.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.568.3%

BTTS & Over 2.551.4%

Away & BTTS42.5%

Away & No BTTS39.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.526.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.3%

Away & Under 2.513.7%

Draw & BTTS9.2%

Draw & Under 2.56.2%

Home & Over 2.54.6%

Draw & Over 2.54.6%

BTTS & Under 2.54.6%

Home & BTTS4.3%

Home & No BTTS2.3%

Home & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.4%

HT Away Win64.1%

HT/FT Away/Away60.9%

HT Over 1.555.4%

2nd Half More Goals47.8%

HT Under 1.544.6%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw26.0%

HT Both Teams Score25.2%

Equal Goals Each Half20.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away18.0%

HT Under 0.515.6%

HT Home Win9.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Home/Away3.7%

HT/FT Home/Home3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.4%

HT/FT Away/Home0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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