England · Championship

Sheffield Utd vs Derby

Full time · 1:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

79% confidence

Sheffield Utd 79.2% Draw 12.0% Derby 8.8%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 72%

✓ Pick was correct (1:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

87%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Sheffield Utd: 9 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.4%

Exact-score model probability

Sheffield Utd

W L W L L W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Derby

L L D D D L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 3:8 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 1

Sheffield Utd 1wins ·0 draws ·Derby 0wins

Sheffield Utd 2-1 DerbyMay 2, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sheffield Utd win79.2%

Draw12.0%

Derby win8.8%

Over 1.5 goals96.3%

Over 2.5 goals87.3%

Over 3.5 goals72.9%

Both teams to score71.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

Home or Draw (1X)

89.5%

Draw No Bet - Home

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)89.5%

Draw No Bet - Home89.5%

Home or Away (12)87.8%

Both Halves Over 0.583.6%

Goal in Both Halves83.6%

Home Win78.6%

Draw or Away (X2)20.1%

Draw10.9%

Draw No Bet - Away10.5%

Away Win9.2%

Exactly 1 Goal3.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals94.6%

Over 2.5 Goals86.1%

Over 3.5 Goals72.0%

4+ Goals72.0%

Under 5.5 Goals63.1%

Over 4.5 Goals54.4%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Under 4.5 Goals45.6%

2-4 Goals40.2%

Over 5.5 Goals36.9%

3-4 Goals31.7%

Under 3.5 Goals28.0%

1-3 Goals26.0%

2-3 Goals22.6%

Exactly 3 Goals14.1%

Under 2.5 Goals13.9%

1-2 Goals11.9%

Exactly 2 Goals8.5%

Under 1.5 Goals5.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score72.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.5%

Home Clean Sheet26.4%

Home Win to Nil25.7%

Away Clean Sheet2.6%

Away Win to Nil1.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.8%

Away Over 0.572.3%

Home Over 2.569.6%

Home 3+ Goals69.6%

Away Over 1.537.5%

Away Exactly 134.8%

Away Exactly 026.4%

Away Exactly 223.0%

Home Exactly 217.2%

Away Over 2.514.6%

Away 3+ Goals14.6%

Home Exactly 19.4%

Home Exactly 02.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)83.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away83.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)78.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)71.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away71.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)54.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away54.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)44.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home44.3%

Home to win by 3+44.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)36.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away36.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)27.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home27.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)20.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away20.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 218.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 116.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)14.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home14.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.8%

Away to win by 15.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.4%

Away to win by 22.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.1%

Away to win by 3+1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.571.5%

BTTS & Over 2.567.2%

Home & BTTS52.9%

Home & No BTTS25.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.0%

Draw & BTTS10.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.3%

Away & Over 2.57.7%

Away & BTTS7.3%

Home & Under 2.57.1%

Draw & Over 2.56.9%

Draw & Under 2.54.0%

BTTS & Under 2.53.3%

Away & No BTTS1.9%

Away & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.4%

HT Over 1.565.6%

HT Home Win63.1%

HT/FT Home/Home58.9%

2nd Half More Goals49.6%

HT Both Teams Score36.2%

HT Under 1.534.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw23.8%

Equal Goals Each Half18.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.1%

HT Away Win13.0%

HT Under 0.510.6%

HT/FT Away/Away5.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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