England · Championship

Southampton vs Bolton

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

84% confidence

Southampton 83.9% Draw 9.0% Bolton 7.1%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 78%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

93%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Southampton: 13 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.3%

Exact-score model probability

Southampton

W W L W W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.83

Bolton

L W W L L L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 10:15 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Southampton win83.9%

Draw9.0%

Bolton win7.1%

Over 1.5 goals98.5%

Over 2.5 goals93.7%

Over 3.5 goals84.6%

Both teams to score77.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

92.0%

Both Halves Over 0.5

90.0%

Goal in Both Halves

90.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home92.0%

Both Halves Over 0.590.0%

Goal in Both Halves90.0%

Home or Draw (1X)88.9%

Home or Away (12)87.8%

Home Win80.7%

Draw or Away (X2)15.3%

Draw8.2%

Draw No Bet - Away8.0%

Away Win7.1%

Exactly 1 Goal1.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.7%

Over 1.5 Goals94.3%

Over 2.5 Goals89.9%

Over 3.5 Goals81.2%

4+ Goals81.2%

Over 4.5 Goals67.9%

Over 5.5 Goals52.0%

Under 5.5 Goals48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Under 4.5 Goals32.1%

2-4 Goals26.3%

3-4 Goals22.0%

Under 3.5 Goals18.8%

1-3 Goals14.6%

2-3 Goals13.1%

Under 2.5 Goals10.1%

Exactly 3 Goals8.8%

1-2 Goals5.8%

Under 1.5 Goals5.7%

Exactly 2 Goals4.4%

Under 0.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score75.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.6%

Home Clean Sheet20.7%

Home Win to Nil20.4%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.575.3%

Away Over 1.543.6%

Away Exactly 131.7%

Away Exactly 224.4%

Away Exactly 020.7%

Away Over 2.519.2%

Away 3+ Goals19.2%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)85.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)74.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away74.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)68.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home68.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)60.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away60.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)52.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home52.2%

Home to win by 3+52.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)43.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away43.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)35.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home35.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)27.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away27.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)21.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home21.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 215.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)15.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away15.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.6%

Home to win by 112.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home11.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.3%

Away to win by 14.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.8%

Away to win by 21.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.577.2%

BTTS & Over 2.572.8%

Home & BTTS60.3%

Home & No BTTS20.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.1%

Draw & BTTS8.0%

Away & Over 2.56.4%

Draw & Over 2.56.3%

Away & BTTS6.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.4%

Home & Under 2.53.5%

Draw & Under 2.51.9%

BTTS & Under 2.51.7%

Away & No BTTS0.9%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.4%

HT Over 1.575.4%

HT Home Win68.6%

HT/FT Home/Home65.1%

2nd Half More Goals51.3%

HT Both Teams Score43.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.524.6%

HT Draw19.7%

Equal Goals Each Half16.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT Away Win11.7%

HT Under 0.56.6%

HT/FT Away/Home5.2%

HT/FT Away/Away4.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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