England · Championship

Southampton vs Bristol City

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

Southampton 50.5% Draw 16.1% Bristol City 33.4%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 93%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

89%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The 1X2 model's strongest outcome is Southampton win at 50.5%.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Southampton: 11 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Southampton win

50.5%

1X2 model probability

Draw

16.1%

1X2 model probability

Bristol City win

33.4%

1X2 model probability

Southampton

W D D W L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 14:9 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Bristol City

W W W D L L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:8 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Southampton win50.5%

Draw16.1%

Bristol City win33.4%

Over 1.5 goals99.1%

Over 2.5 goals95.8%

Over 3.5 goals89.1%

Both teams to score92.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Teams Score (GG)

90.9%

BTTS & Over 2.5

89.4%

Over 3.5 Goals

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.592.2%

Goal in Both Halves92.2%

Home or Away (12)83.0%

Home or Draw (1X)65.4%

Draw No Bet - Home60.2%

Home Win49.9%

Draw or Away (X2)48.6%

Draw No Bet - Away39.8%

Away Win33.1%

Draw15.5%

Exactly 1 Goal0.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals97.4%

Over 2.5 Goals94.4%

Over 3.5 Goals87.8%

4+ Goals87.8%

Over 4.5 Goals76.9%

Over 5.5 Goals62.6%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Under 5.5 Goals37.4%

Under 4.5 Goals23.1%

2-4 Goals20.5%

3-4 Goals17.5%

Under 3.5 Goals12.2%

1-3 Goals10.6%

2-3 Goals9.7%

Exactly 3 Goals6.6%

Under 2.5 Goals5.6%

1-2 Goals3.9%

Exactly 2 Goals3.0%

Under 1.5 Goals2.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.7%

Away Team to Score93.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)90.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)9.1%

Home Clean Sheet5.0%

Home Win to Nil4.8%

Away Clean Sheet2.8%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.7%

Away Over 0.593.6%

Home Over 1.585.7%

Away Over 1.578.7%

Home Over 2.567.9%

Home 3+ Goals67.9%

Away Over 2.556.5%

Away 3+ Goals56.5%

Away Exactly 222.2%

Home Exactly 217.8%

Away Exactly 114.8%

Home Exactly 110.0%

Away Exactly 05.0%

Home Exactly 02.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home93.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home87.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)78.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home78.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)77.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away77.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)64.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away64.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)49.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)48.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away48.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)34.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home34.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)33.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)21.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home21.0%

Home to win by 3+21.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)20.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away20.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 115.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.3%

Home to win by 213.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.1%

Away to win by 113.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.7%

Away to win by 3+10.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.3%

Away to win by 29.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.7%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.589.4%

Home & Over 2.548.5%

Home & BTTS45.1%

Away & Over 2.532.0%

Away & BTTS30.4%

Draw & BTTS15.4%

Draw & Over 2.513.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.0%

Home & No BTTS4.8%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.6%

Draw & Under 2.51.6%

BTTS & Under 2.51.5%

Home & Under 2.51.4%

Away & Under 2.51.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.8%

HT Over 1.579.4%

HT Both Teams Score59.2%

2nd Half More Goals52.2%

HT Home Win43.6%

HT/FT Home/Home34.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Away Win32.1%

HT Draw24.3%

HT/FT Away/Away21.1%

HT Under 1.520.6%

Equal Goals Each Half15.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.3%

HT Under 0.55.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Away4.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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