England · Championship

Southampton vs Portsmouth

Kick-off 12:00 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

79% confidence

Southampton 79.1% Draw 10.5% Portsmouth 10.4%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

90%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 5.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Southampton: 11 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.4%

Exact-score model probability

Southampton

L W W D D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 15:7 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Portsmouth

D D W L L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Southampton win79.1%

Draw10.5%

Portsmouth win10.4%

Over 1.5 goals98.9%

Over 2.5 goals95.1%

Over 3.5 goals87.5%

Both teams to score84.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.5%

Both Halves Over 0.5

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.591.5%

Goal in Both Halves91.5%

Draw No Bet - Home88.2%

Home or Away (12)86.3%

Home or Draw (1X)85.8%

Home Win76.1%

Draw or Away (X2)19.8%

Draw No Bet - Away11.8%

Away Win10.2%

Draw9.7%

Exactly 1 Goal1.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.7%

Over 2.5 Goals91.3%

Over 3.5 Goals84.0%

4+ Goals84.0%

Over 4.5 Goals72.3%

Over 5.5 Goals57.3%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals42.7%

Under 4.5 Goals27.7%

2-4 Goals22.4%

3-4 Goals19.0%

Under 3.5 Goals16.0%

1-3 Goals11.8%

2-3 Goals10.8%

Under 2.5 Goals8.7%

Exactly 3 Goals7.3%

Under 1.5 Goals5.3%

1-2 Goals4.5%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

Exactly 2 Goals3.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score81.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)80.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.6%

Home Clean Sheet14.6%

Home Win to Nil14.4%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Away Over 0.581.4%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.553.9%

Away Over 2.528.0%

Away 3+ Goals28.0%

Away Exactly 127.5%

Away Exactly 225.9%

Away Exactly 014.6%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)87.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)77.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away77.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)76.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)64.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away64.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)49.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away49.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)46.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home46.7%

Home to win by 3+46.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)33.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away33.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)31.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home31.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)19.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away19.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home18.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 215.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.6%

Home to win by 113.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.7%

Away to win by 15.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.8%

Away to win by 22.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.7%

Away to win by 3+1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.0%

Home & Over 2.573.7%

Home & BTTS61.7%

Home & No BTTS14.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.3%

Away & Over 2.59.5%

Draw & BTTS9.5%

Away & BTTS9.2%

Draw & Over 2.58.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.3%

Home & Under 2.52.5%

Draw & Under 2.51.6%

BTTS & Under 2.51.4%

Away & No BTTS0.9%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.3%

HT Over 1.578.1%

HT Home Win64.7%

HT/FT Home/Home60.1%

2nd Half More Goals51.8%

HT Both Teams Score49.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.521.9%

HT Draw20.4%

Equal Goals Each Half15.7%

HT Away Win14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.0%

HT/FT Away/Away5.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.9%

HT Under 0.55.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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