England · Championship

Southampton vs QPR

Kick-off 16:00 · Sat, Oct 31

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

81% confidence

Southampton 80.6% Draw 12.7% QPR 6.7%

Over 2.5 - 77% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 9.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Southampton: 13 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.1%

Exact-score model probability

Southampton

W D W W L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.83

QPR

W L W D D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Southampton win80.6%

Draw12.7%

QPR win6.7%

Over 1.5 goals91.9%

Over 2.5 goals77.0%

Over 3.5 goals57.7%

Both teams to score57.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

91.8%

Over 1.5 Goals

90.8%

Home or Away (12)

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)92.2%

Draw No Bet - Home91.8%

Home or Away (12)88.1%

Home Win80.8%

Both Halves Over 0.575.0%

Goal in Both Halves75.0%

Draw or Away (X2)18.6%

Draw11.4%

Draw No Bet - Away8.2%

Away Win7.2%

Exactly 1 Goal7.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals90.8%

Under 5.5 Goals78.0%

Over 2.5 Goals76.6%

Under 4.5 Goals62.1%

Over 3.5 Goals57.4%

4+ Goals57.4%

2-4 Goals52.9%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Under 3.5 Goals42.6%

1-3 Goals40.4%

3-4 Goals38.7%

Over 4.5 Goals37.9%

2-3 Goals33.4%

Under 2.5 Goals23.4%

Over 5.5 Goals22.0%

1-2 Goals21.2%

Exactly 3 Goals19.2%

Exactly 2 Goals14.2%

Under 1.5 Goals9.2%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.2%

Away Team to Score59.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.5%

Home Clean Sheet40.4%

Home Win to Nil38.7%

Away Clean Sheet4.2%

Away Win to Nil2.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.2%

Home Over 1.581.9%

Home Over 2.560.7%

Home 3+ Goals60.7%

Away Over 0.559.0%

Away Exactly 040.4%

Away Exactly 136.4%

Away Over 1.522.6%

Home Exactly 221.1%

Away Exactly 216.4%

Home Exactly 113.4%

Away Over 2.56.3%

Away 3+ Goals6.3%

Home Exactly 04.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)86.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away86.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)74.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away74.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)63.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home63.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)56.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away56.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)42.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home42.7%

Home to win by 3+42.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)36.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away36.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)25.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home25.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.3%

Home to win by 220.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)18.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away18.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.9%

Home to win by 117.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home12.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.1%

Away to win by 15.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.6%

Away to win by 21.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.566.8%

BTTS & Over 2.551.6%

Home & BTTS42.1%

Home & No BTTS38.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.525.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.0%

Home & Under 2.514.0%

Draw & BTTS9.7%

Draw & Under 2.56.6%

Away & Over 2.55.0%

BTTS & Under 2.54.9%

Draw & Over 2.54.8%

Away & BTTS4.7%

Away & No BTTS2.5%

Away & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.9%

HT Home Win62.9%

HT/FT Home/Home59.4%

HT Over 1.554.6%

2nd Half More Goals47.7%

HT Under 1.545.4%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw26.7%

HT Both Teams Score25.3%

Equal Goals Each Half20.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.2%

HT Under 0.516.1%

HT Away Win10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.9%

HT/FT Away/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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