England · Championship

Southampton vs Stoke City

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Southampton 42.8% Draw 28.2% Stoke City 29.0%

Over 2.5 - 52% BTTS - 57%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.9%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Southampton: 10 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.9%

Exact-score model probability

Southampton

L W W D W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Stoke City

L W L

Form 1-0-2 Goals 3:4 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Southampton win42.8%

Draw28.2%

Stoke City win29.0%

Over 1.5 goals77.8%

Over 2.5 goals52.2%

Over 3.5 goals30.0%

Both teams to score57.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.9%

Home or Draw (1X)69.5%

Draw No Bet - Home59.2%

Draw or Away (X2)55.7%

Both Halves Over 0.555.6%

Goal in Both Halves55.6%

Home Win44.3%

Draw No Bet - Away40.8%

Away Win30.5%

Draw25.1%

Exactly 1 Goal17.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals93.8%

Over 0.5 Goals93.7%

Under 4.5 Goals85.3%

Over 1.5 Goals76.3%

Under 3.5 Goals70.0%

1-3 Goals63.7%

2-4 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals52.2%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals47.8%

2-3 Goals46.3%

1-2 Goals41.5%

3-4 Goals37.5%

Over 3.5 Goals30.0%

4+ Goals30.0%

Exactly 2 Goals24.1%

Under 1.5 Goals23.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals14.7%

Under 0.5 Goals6.3%

Exactly 0 Goals6.3%

Over 5.5 Goals6.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score78.4%

Away Team to Score70.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)55.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)44.5%

Home Clean Sheet29.2%

Home Win to Nil22.9%

Away Clean Sheet21.6%

Away Win to Nil15.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.578.4%

Away Over 0.570.8%

Home Over 1.545.3%

Away Exactly 136.0%

Away Over 1.534.8%

Home Exactly 133.1%

Away Exactly 029.2%

Home Exactly 225.4%

Away Exactly 222.1%

Home Exactly 021.6%

Home Over 2.519.9%

Home 3+ Goals19.9%

Away Over 2.512.7%

Away 3+ Goals12.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)77.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away77.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)69.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home69.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)55.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away55.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)44.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)30.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)22.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home22.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.2%

Home to win by 122.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.8%

Away to win by 117.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.3%

Home to win by 213.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.8%

Home to win by 3+8.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.6%

Away to win by 28.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.2%

Away to win by 3+4.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.543.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.9%

Home & Over 2.527.2%

Home & No BTTS22.9%

Home & BTTS21.4%

Draw & BTTS18.8%

Draw & Under 2.518.2%

Away & Over 2.518.0%

Home & Under 2.517.1%

Away & BTTS15.3%

Away & No BTTS15.3%

Away & Under 2.512.5%

BTTS & Under 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.6%

Draw & Over 2.56.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.2%

HT Under 1.564.7%

2nd Half More Goals43.7%

HT Draw41.0%

HT Over 1.535.3%

HT Home Win33.8%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.528.8%

HT/FT Home/Home26.7%

HT Away Win25.3%

Equal Goals Each Half25.2%

HT Both Teams Score21.2%

HT/FT Away/Away17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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