England · Championship

Southampton vs Swansea

Kick-off 19:45 · Tue, Sep 8

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Southampton 18.7% Draw 22.4% Swansea 58.9%

Over 2.5 - 66% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

63%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Swansea: 8 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.7%

Exact-score model probability

Southampton

D D W L W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 12:10 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.67

Swansea

D W W D W L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 7:2 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Southampton win18.7%

Draw22.4%

Swansea win58.9%

Over 1.5 goals86.2%

Over 2.5 goals65.5%

Over 3.5 goals43.6%

Both teams to score62.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

91.4%

Away Team to Score

88.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)80.1%

Home or Away (12)79.9%

Draw No Bet - Away75.1%

Both Halves Over 0.565.9%

Goal in Both Halves65.9%

Away Win60.0%

Home or Draw (1X)39.9%

Draw No Bet - Home24.9%

Draw20.1%

Home Win19.9%

Exactly 1 Goal11.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.5%

Under 5.5 Goals87.4%

Over 1.5 Goals85.0%

Under 4.5 Goals74.9%

Over 2.5 Goals65.5%

2-4 Goals59.9%

Under 3.5 Goals56.5%

1-3 Goals53.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals43.5%

4+ Goals43.5%

2-3 Goals41.4%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals34.5%

1-2 Goals31.1%

Over 4.5 Goals25.1%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Exactly 2 Goals19.5%

Under 1.5 Goals15.0%

Over 5.5 Goals12.6%

Under 0.5 Goals3.5%

Exactly 0 Goals3.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score88.7%

Home Team to Score69.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.3%

Away Clean Sheet30.5%

Away Win to Nil27.0%

Home Clean Sheet11.2%

Home Win to Nil7.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.588.7%

Home Over 0.569.5%

Away Over 1.564.2%

Away Over 2.537.3%

Away 3+ Goals37.3%

Home Exactly 136.2%

Home Over 1.533.3%

Home Exactly 030.5%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 124.6%

Home Exactly 221.5%

Home Over 2.511.8%

Home 3+ Goals11.8%

Away Exactly 011.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home91.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)80.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home80.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)80.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away80.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)62.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home62.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)60.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)39.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home39.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)37.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away37.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.5%

Away to win by 122.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)19.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)19.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away19.5%

Away to win by 3+19.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.0%

Away to win by 218.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.2%

Home to win by 112.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home7.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.3%

Home to win by 25.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.4%

Home to win by 3+2.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.552.8%

Away & Over 2.544.3%

Away & BTTS33.0%

Away & No BTTS27.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.6%

Draw & BTTS16.6%

Away & Under 2.515.7%

Home & Over 2.513.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.7%

Draw & Under 2.512.3%

Home & BTTS12.1%

BTTS & Under 2.58.9%

Home & No BTTS7.8%

Draw & Over 2.57.7%

Home & Under 2.56.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.1%

HT Under 1.555.2%

2nd Half More Goals45.8%

HT Away Win45.4%

HT Over 1.544.8%

HT/FT Away/Away39.1%

HT Draw35.0%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score25.9%

Equal Goals Each Half22.4%

HT Under 0.521.9%

HT Home Win19.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.3%

HT/FT Home/Home11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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