England · League Cup

Southampton vs West Ham

Kick-off 19:45 · Tue, Aug 25

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

71% confidence

Southampton 70.6% Draw 17.1% West Ham 12.3%

Over 2.5 - 75% BTTS - 65%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

88%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Southampton: 13 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.9%

Exact-score model probability

Southampton

W L W W D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.83

West Ham

L D W W L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 10:9 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Southampton 1wins ·2 draws ·West Ham 2wins

Southampton 1-1 West HamApr 19, 2025

Southampton 0-1 West HamDec 26, 2024

Southampton 0-1 West HamApr 2, 2023

Southampton 1-1 West HamOct 16, 2022

Southampton 3-2 West HamDec 26, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Southampton win70.6%

Draw17.1%

West Ham win12.3%

Over 1.5 goals91.2%

Over 2.5 goals75.3%

Over 3.5 goals55.4%

Both teams to score65.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.9%

Under 5.5 Goals

89.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)80.9%

Home or Away (12)79.5%

Draw No Bet - Home76.0%

Both Halves Over 0.563.2%

Goal in Both Halves63.2%

Home Win60.4%

Draw or Away (X2)39.6%

Draw No Bet - Away24.0%

Draw20.5%

Away Win19.1%

Exactly 1 Goal13.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.9%

Under 5.5 Goals89.4%

Over 1.5 Goals82.9%

Under 4.5 Goals78.0%

Over 2.5 Goals62.1%

2-4 Goals60.9%

Under 3.5 Goals60.2%

1-3 Goals56.1%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals43.1%

3-4 Goals40.1%

Over 3.5 Goals39.8%

4+ Goals39.8%

Under 2.5 Goals37.9%

1-2 Goals33.8%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals22.0%

Exactly 2 Goals20.8%

Under 1.5 Goals17.1%

Over 5.5 Goals10.6%

Under 0.5 Goals4.1%

Exactly 0 Goals4.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.8%

Away Team to Score66.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)58.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.4%

Home Clean Sheet33.3%

Home Win to Nil29.2%

Away Clean Sheet12.2%

Away Win to Nil8.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.8%

Away Over 0.566.7%

Home Over 1.562.1%

Away Exactly 136.6%

Home Over 2.535.1%

Home 3+ Goals35.1%

Away Exactly 033.3%

Away Over 1.530.1%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 125.7%

Away Exactly 220.1%

Home Exactly 012.2%

Away Over 2.510.0%

Away 3+ Goals10.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)62.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away62.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.1%

Home to win by 123.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.0%

Home to win by 3+19.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 218.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.1%

Away to win by 112.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.0%

Away to win by 25.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.0%

Away to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.549.2%

Home & Over 2.542.8%

Home & BTTS31.1%

Home & No BTTS29.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.528.5%

Home & Under 2.517.5%

Draw & BTTS16.5%

Draw & Under 2.513.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.9%

Away & Over 2.512.2%

Away & BTTS11.0%

BTTS & Under 2.59.4%

Away & No BTTS8.1%

Draw & Over 2.57.1%

Away & Under 2.56.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.3%

HT Under 1.557.7%

2nd Half More Goals45.3%

HT Home Win45.2%

HT Over 1.542.3%

HT/FT Home/Home39.2%

HT Draw36.1%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT Both Teams Score23.9%

HT Under 0.523.7%

Equal Goals Each Half23.1%

HT Away Win18.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.4%

HT/FT Away/Away10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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