Netherlands · Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax

Full time · 1:2

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

57% confidence

Sparta Rotterdam 19.2% Draw 24.2% Ajax 56.6%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 94%

✓ Pick was correct (1:2)

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

82%

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.5%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Ajax: 5 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.5%

Exact-score model probability

Sparta Rotterdam

W D L L D L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 10:17 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2.83

Ajax

W D D W W L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 19:10 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Sparta Rotterdam 0wins ·3 draws ·Ajax 2wins

Sparta Rotterdam 0-4 AjaxMar 14, 2026

Sparta Rotterdam 3-3 AjaxOct 4, 2025

Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 AjaxApr 27, 2025

Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 AjaxDec 22, 2024

Sparta Rotterdam 2-2 AjaxMar 17, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sparta Rotterdam win19.2%

Draw24.2%

Ajax win56.6%

Over 1.5 goals82.3%

Over 2.5 goals97.8%

Over 3.5 goals36.7%

Both teams to score93.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Halves Over 0.5

90.1%

Goal in Both Halves

90.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

89.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.590.1%

Goal in Both Halves90.1%

Home or Away (12)84.3%

Draw or Away (X2)77.2%

Draw No Bet - Away74.8%

Away Win63.0%

Home or Draw (1X)35.4%

Draw No Bet - Home25.2%

Home Win21.2%

Draw14.2%

Exactly 1 Goal1.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals96.8%

Over 2.5 Goals92.5%

Over 3.5 Goals83.9%

4+ Goals83.9%

Over 4.5 Goals70.7%

Over 5.5 Goals54.8%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

Total Goals Even49.2%

Under 5.5 Goals45.2%

Under 4.5 Goals29.3%

2-4 Goals26.1%

3-4 Goals21.8%

Under 3.5 Goals16.1%

1-3 Goals14.4%

2-3 Goals13.0%

Exactly 3 Goals8.7%

Under 2.5 Goals7.5%

1-2 Goals5.7%

Exactly 2 Goals4.3%

Under 1.5 Goals3.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.1%

Home Team to Score88.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)86.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)13.4%

Away Clean Sheet9.7%

Away Win to Nil9.5%

Home Clean Sheet2.4%

Home Win to Nil2.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 0.588.7%

Away Over 1.587.2%

Away Over 2.570.7%

Away 3+ Goals70.7%

Home Over 1.566.2%

Home Over 2.540.2%

Home 3+ Goals40.2%

Home Exactly 226.1%

Home Exactly 122.5%

Away Exactly 216.6%

Home Exactly 09.7%

Away Exactly 18.9%

Away Exactly 02.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)94.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home89.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)87.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away87.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)80.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home80.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)77.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away77.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)67.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home67.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)63.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)51.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home51.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)46.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away46.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)35.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home35.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)30.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away30.8%

Away to win by 3+30.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)21.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)17.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away17.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.4%

Away to win by 116.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.8%

Away to win by 215.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw12.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home11.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.2%

Home to win by 110.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away9.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.1%

Home to win by 26.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.0%

Home to win by 3+5.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.584.6%

Away & Over 2.560.5%

Away & BTTS53.5%

Home & Over 2.520.1%

Home & BTTS19.1%

Draw & BTTS14.0%

Draw & Over 2.511.9%

Away & No BTTS9.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.9%

Away & Under 2.52.5%

Draw & Under 2.52.3%

Home & No BTTS2.1%

BTTS & Under 2.52.0%

Home & Under 2.51.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.4%

HT Over 1.575.6%

HT Both Teams Score52.7%

HT Away Win52.4%

2nd Half More Goals51.4%

HT/FT Away/Away45.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.524.4%

HT Draw24.2%

HT Home Win23.4%

Equal Goals Each Half16.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.4%

HT/FT Home/Home12.8%

HT Under 0.56.6%

HT/FT Home/Away6.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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