Netherlands · Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle

Kick-off 19:00 · Fri, Sep 4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Sparta Rotterdam 50.4% Draw 26.5% PEC Zwolle 23.1%

Over 2.5 - 97% BTTS - 91%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Sparta Rotterdam: 4 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Sparta Rotterdam 0 wins, 2 draws, PEC Zwolle 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Sparta Rotterdam

L D W L L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 9:14 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.33

PEC Zwolle

L W L L L L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 6:13 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 5

Sparta Rotterdam 0wins ·2 draws ·PEC Zwolle 3wins

Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 PEC ZwolleMar 8, 2026

Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 PEC ZwolleNov 8, 2025

Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 PEC ZwolleMar 15, 2025

Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 PEC ZwolleNov 30, 2024

Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 PEC ZwolleFeb 4, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sparta Rotterdam win50.4%

Draw26.5%

PEC Zwolle win23.1%

Over 1.5 goals78.2%

Over 2.5 goals96.8%

Over 3.5 goals30.8%

Both teams to score90.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.2%

Over 2.5 Goals

88.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.9%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.585.0%

Goal in Both Halves85.0%

Home or Away (12)83.4%

Home or Draw (1X)76.5%

Draw No Bet - Home72.5%

Home Win60.4%

Draw or Away (X2)39.0%

Draw No Bet - Away27.5%

Away Win23.0%

Draw16.1%

Exactly 1 Goal2.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals95.9%

Over 2.5 Goals88.3%

Over 3.5 Goals75.2%

4+ Goals75.2%

Under 5.5 Goals59.2%

Over 4.5 Goals58.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Under 4.5 Goals41.7%

Over 5.5 Goals40.8%

2-4 Goals37.6%

3-4 Goals30.0%

Under 3.5 Goals24.8%

1-3 Goals23.7%

2-3 Goals20.7%

Exactly 3 Goals13.1%

Under 2.5 Goals11.7%

1-2 Goals10.6%

Exactly 2 Goals7.6%

Under 1.5 Goals4.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.2%

Away Team to Score86.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.6%

Home Clean Sheet13.3%

Home Win to Nil12.8%

Away Clean Sheet4.3%

Away Win to Nil3.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.2%

Away Over 0.586.1%

Home Over 1.581.8%

Home Over 2.560.6%

Home 3+ Goals60.6%

Away Over 1.559.3%

Away Over 2.532.4%

Away 3+ Goals32.4%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 126.8%

Home Exactly 221.2%

Home Exactly 113.4%

Away Exactly 013.3%

Home Exactly 04.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away85.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)73.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away73.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)57.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away57.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)42.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home42.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)26.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home26.1%

Home to win by 3+26.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 216.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home14.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.5%

Away to win by 111.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.6%

Away to win by 26.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.9%

Away to win by 3+4.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.578.8%

Home & Over 2.555.8%

Home & BTTS47.7%

Away & Over 2.520.7%

Away & BTTS19.3%

Draw & BTTS15.5%

Home & No BTTS12.8%

Draw & Over 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.5%

Home & Under 2.54.6%

Draw & Under 2.54.2%

Away & No BTTS3.7%

BTTS & Under 2.53.6%

Away & Under 2.52.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.2%

HT Over 1.567.5%

2nd Half More Goals50.0%

HT Home Win49.0%

HT Both Teams Score45.2%

HT/FT Home/Home41.5%

HT Under 1.532.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw27.0%

HT Away Win24.0%

Equal Goals Each Half17.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.1%

HT/FT Away/Away13.7%

HT Under 0.59.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.4%

HT/FT Away/Home5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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