Netherlands · Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II

Kick-off 20:00 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Sparta Rotterdam 61.3% Draw 24.0% Willem II 14.7%

Over 2.5 - 97% BTTS - 91%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.4%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Sparta Rotterdam: 3 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Sparta Rotterdam 4 wins, 0 draws, Willem II 0 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.4%

Exact-score model probability

Sparta Rotterdam

D L L D L D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 10:18 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 3

Willem II

L L L D L D

Form 0-2-4 Goals 5:15 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.5

Head to head · last 4

Sparta Rotterdam 4wins ·0 draws ·Willem II 0wins

Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 Willem IIMar 2, 2025

Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 Willem IIAug 31, 2024

Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 Willem IIFeb 13, 2022

Sparta Rotterdam 3-0 Willem IINov 6, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sparta Rotterdam win61.3%

Draw24.0%

Willem II win14.7%

Over 1.5 goals78.4%

Over 2.5 goals96.5%

Over 3.5 goals31.1%

Both teams to score90.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.2%

Over 2.5 Goals

89.2%

Home Over 1.5

86.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.586.6%

Goal in Both Halves86.6%

Home or Away (12)85.9%

Home or Draw (1X)84.7%

Draw No Bet - Home83.7%

Home Win71.9%

Draw or Away (X2)26.8%

Draw No Bet - Away16.3%

Away Win14.0%

Draw12.7%

Exactly 1 Goal2.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals95.8%

Over 2.5 Goals89.2%

Over 3.5 Goals77.4%

4+ Goals77.4%

Over 4.5 Goals61.5%

Under 5.5 Goals55.8%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Over 5.5 Goals44.2%

Under 4.5 Goals38.5%

2-4 Goals34.3%

3-4 Goals27.8%

Under 3.5 Goals22.6%

1-3 Goals20.8%

2-3 Goals18.4%

Exactly 3 Goals11.8%

Under 2.5 Goals10.8%

1-2 Goals9.0%

Exactly 2 Goals6.6%

Under 1.5 Goals4.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score81.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.9%

Home Clean Sheet17.4%

Home Win to Nil17.0%

Away Clean Sheet2.5%

Away Win to Nil2.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.8%

Away Over 0.581.2%

Home Over 2.569.7%

Home 3+ Goals69.7%

Away Over 1.551.0%

Away Exactly 130.2%

Away Exactly 226.2%

Away Over 2.524.8%

Away 3+ Goals24.8%

Away Exactly 017.4%

Home Exactly 217.1%

Home Exactly 19.3%

Home Exactly 02.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)86.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away86.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)75.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away75.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)60.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away60.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)55.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home55.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)43.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away43.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)37.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home37.9%

Home to win by 3+37.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)26.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away26.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)22.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home22.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 217.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.6%

Home to win by 116.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)14.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home12.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.8%

Away to win by 17.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.9%

Away to win by 23.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.3%

Away to win by 3+2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.576.3%

Home & Over 2.567.2%

Home & BTTS54.9%

Home & No BTTS17.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.0%

Away & Over 2.512.6%

Draw & BTTS12.3%

Away & BTTS11.9%

Draw & Over 2.59.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.6%

Home & Under 2.54.7%

Draw & Under 2.53.3%

BTTS & Under 2.52.9%

Away & No BTTS2.1%

Away & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.2%

HT Over 1.569.9%

HT Home Win58.2%

HT/FT Home/Home52.6%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

HT Both Teams Score43.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.1%

HT Draw24.3%

HT Away Win17.5%

Equal Goals Each Half17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.1%

HT Under 0.58.8%

HT/FT Away/Away8.1%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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