Russia · Premier League

Spartak Moscow vs Fakel

Kick-off 16:30 · Wed, Sep 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

70% confidence

Spartak Moscow 69.6% Draw 19.9% Fakel 10.5%

Over 2.5 - 59% BTTS - 51%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

82%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 12%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Spartak Moscow: 11 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12%

Exact-score model probability

Spartak Moscow

D W L W W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 9:5 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Fakel

W L D L L

Form 1-1-3 Goals 4:6 Scored/game 0.8 Conceded/game 1.2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Spartak Moscow win69.6%

Draw19.9%

Fakel win10.5%

Over 1.5 goals82.3%

Over 2.5 goals59.4%

Over 3.5 goals37.0%

Both teams to score50.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.9%

Under 5.5 Cards

89.8%

Home Team to Score

89.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)88.4%

Draw No Bet - Home85.9%

Home or Away (12)82.2%

Home Win70.7%

Both Halves Over 0.561.2%

Goal in Both Halves61.2%

Draw or Away (X2)29.3%

Draw17.7%

Exactly 1 Goal14.2%

Draw No Bet - Away14.1%

Away Win11.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.3%

Under 5.5 Goals90.9%

Over 1.5 Goals81.1%

Under 4.5 Goals80.3%

Under 3.5 Goals63.1%

2-4 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals59.3%

1-3 Goals58.4%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.2%

Under 2.5 Goals40.7%

3-4 Goals39.6%

Over 3.5 Goals36.9%

4+ Goals36.9%

1-2 Goals36.0%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals21.8%

Over 4.5 Goals19.7%

Under 1.5 Goals18.9%

Over 5.5 Goals9.1%

Under 0.5 Goals4.7%

Exactly 0 Goals4.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.7%

Away Team to Score55.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)50.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)49.4%

Home Clean Sheet44.9%

Home Win to Nil40.3%

Away Clean Sheet10.3%

Away Win to Nil5.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.7%

Home Over 1.566.3%

Away Over 0.555.0%

Away Exactly 044.9%

Home Over 2.539.7%

Home 3+ Goals39.7%

Away Exactly 135.9%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 123.4%

Away Over 1.519.1%

Away Exactly 214.4%

Home Exactly 010.3%

Away Over 2.54.7%

Away 3+ Goals4.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)73.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away73.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)70.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)52.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away52.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)47.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home47.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)29.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away29.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)26.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home26.1%

Home to win by 3+26.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.4%

Home to win by 123.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.1%

Home to win by 221.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.2%

Away to win by 18.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.6%

Away to win by 22.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.548.2%

BTTS & Over 2.541.0%

Home & No BTTS40.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.532.2%

Home & BTTS30.4%

Home & Under 2.522.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.3%

Draw & BTTS13.1%

Draw & Under 2.513.0%

BTTS & Under 2.58.4%

Away & Over 2.56.4%

Away & BTTS5.9%

Away & No BTTS5.6%

Away & Under 2.55.2%

Draw & Over 2.54.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.0%

HT Under 1.559.7%

HT Home Win52.0%

HT/FT Home/Home47.6%

2nd Half More Goals44.8%

HT Over 1.540.3%

HT Draw35.2%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.525.0%

Equal Goals Each Half23.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.0%

HT Both Teams Score19.4%

HT Away Win12.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.6%

HT/FT Away/Away6.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

Corners (12)

Over 8.5 Corners75.3%

Away Over 4.5 Corners66.8%

Over 9.5 Corners64.1%

Under 11.5 Corners59.9%

Home Over 4.5 Corners58.8%

Over 10.5 Corners52.0%

Away Most Corners49.9%

Under 10.5 Corners48.0%

Over 11.5 Corners40.1%

Home Most Corners38.0%

Under 9.5 Corners35.9%

Under 8.5 Corners24.7%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards89.8%

Under 4.5 Cards78.7%

Over 2.5 Cards61.3%

Under 3.5 Cards61.0%

Over 3.5 Cards39.0%

Under 2.5 Cards38.7%

Over 4.5 Cards21.3%

Over 0.5 Red Cards12.7%

Over 5.5 Cards10.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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