Russia · Premier League

Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar

Kick-off 18:00 · Sun, Aug 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Spartak Moscow 44.5% Draw 25.1% FC Krasnodar 30.4%

Over 2.5 - 65% BTTS - 67%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 43%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to FC Krasnodar: 10 points versus 12 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.80 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.8%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

43%

Market does not fully agree

Spartak Moscow

W W D W L

Form 3-1-1 Goals 8:4 Scored/game 1.6 Conceded/game 0.8

FC Krasnodar

W W W L W

Form 4-0-1 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 2.2 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Spartak Moscow win44.5%

Draw25.1%

FC Krasnodar win30.4%

Over 1.5 goals85.9%

Over 2.5 goals64.9%

Over 3.5 goals42.9%

Both teams to score66.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

88.8%

Under 5.5 Goals

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.4%

Home or Draw (1X)68.3%

Both Halves Over 0.565.4%

Goal in Both Halves65.4%

Draw No Bet - Home59.0%

Draw or Away (X2)54.3%

Home Win45.7%

Draw No Bet - Away41.0%

Away Win31.7%

Draw22.5%

Exactly 1 Goal11.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.5%

Under 5.5 Goals87.8%

Over 1.5 Goals84.7%

Under 4.5 Goals75.5%

Over 2.5 Goals64.9%

2-4 Goals60.1%

Under 3.5 Goals57.1%

1-3 Goals53.5%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals42.9%

4+ Goals42.9%

2-3 Goals41.7%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals35.1%

1-2 Goals31.5%

Over 4.5 Goals24.5%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Exactly 2 Goals19.7%

Under 1.5 Goals15.3%

Over 5.5 Goals12.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.5%

Exactly 0 Goals3.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.1%

Away Team to Score77.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.6%

Home Clean Sheet22.2%

Home Win to Nil18.7%

Away Clean Sheet15.9%

Away Win to Nil12.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.1%

Away Over 0.577.8%

Home Over 1.554.9%

Away Over 1.544.3%

Away Exactly 133.4%

Home Exactly 129.2%

Home Over 2.528.0%

Home 3+ Goals28.0%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 225.1%

Away Exactly 022.2%

Away Over 2.519.2%

Away 3+ Goals19.2%

Home Exactly 015.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)75.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away75.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)68.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home68.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)54.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away54.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)45.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)31.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)25.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home25.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.7%

Home to win by 120.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.9%

Away to win by 116.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.8%

Home to win by 213.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.2%

Home to win by 3+11.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.2%

Away to win by 29.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.6%

Away to win by 3+5.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.555.6%

Home & Over 2.533.3%

Home & BTTS27.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.3%

Away & Over 2.522.4%

Away & BTTS19.4%

Draw & BTTS19.0%

Home & No BTTS18.7%

Draw & Under 2.513.3%

Home & Under 2.512.5%

Away & No BTTS12.4%

BTTS & Under 2.59.8%

Away & Under 2.59.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.3%

Draw & Over 2.59.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.8%

HT Under 1.555.6%

2nd Half More Goals45.7%

HT Over 1.544.4%

HT Draw36.5%

HT Home Win36.2%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT/FT Home/Home28.3%

HT Both Teams Score27.7%

HT Away Win27.3%

Equal Goals Each Half22.5%

HT Under 0.522.2%

HT/FT Away/Away18.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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