Russia · Premier League

Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg

Kick-off 15:30 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

93% confidence

Spartak Moscow 92.8% Draw 5.2% FC Orenburg 2.0%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 52%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

93%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

93%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 9.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Spartak Moscow: 13 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.1%

Exact-score model probability

Spartak Moscow

W L W W D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:5 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.83

FC Orenburg

D D L W L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 5:9 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Spartak Moscow win92.8%

Draw5.2%

FC Orenburg win2.0%

Over 1.5 goals96.7%

Over 2.5 goals88.7%

Over 3.5 goals75.3%

Both teams to score52.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

91.6%

HT Over 0.5

90.4%

Home Over 1.5

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home97.7%

Home or Draw (1X)94.1%

Home or Away (12)91.6%

Home Win89.5%

Both Halves Over 0.585.2%

Goal in Both Halves85.2%

Draw or Away (X2)6.7%

Draw4.6%

Exactly 1 Goal2.9%

Draw No Bet - Away2.3%

Away Win2.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Over 1.5 Goals92.7%

Over 2.5 Goals85.3%

Over 3.5 Goals72.4%

4+ Goals72.4%

Under 5.5 Goals61.9%

Over 4.5 Goals55.6%

Total Goals Even48.3%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Under 4.5 Goals44.4%

Over 5.5 Goals38.1%

2-4 Goals37.2%

3-4 Goals29.7%

Under 3.5 Goals27.6%

1-3 Goals23.2%

2-3 Goals20.4%

Under 2.5 Goals14.7%

Exactly 3 Goals12.9%

1-2 Goals10.3%

Exactly 2 Goals7.4%

Under 1.5 Goals7.3%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.0%

Away Team to Score50.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)50.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)49.8%

Home Clean Sheet45.7%

Home Win to Nil45.2%

Away Clean Sheet1.2%

Away Win to Nil0.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.0%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Home Over 2.578.3%

Home 3+ Goals78.3%

Away Over 0.550.4%

Away Exactly 045.7%

Away Exactly 134.0%

Away Over 1.516.4%

Away Exactly 212.6%

Home Exactly 211.5%

Home Exactly 15.2%

Away Over 2.53.8%

Away 3+ Goals3.8%

Home Exactly 01.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)89.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)80.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home80.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)79.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)65.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away65.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)65.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home65.3%

Home to win by 3+65.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)48.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away48.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)47.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home47.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)30.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away30.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)30.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home30.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)17.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw17.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home17.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)16.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away16.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.7%

Home to win by 214.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw13.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.5%

Home to win by 19.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away6.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw1.6%

Away to win by 11.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.4%

Away to win by 20.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.6%

BTTS & Over 2.548.0%

Home & No BTTS45.2%

Home & BTTS44.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.537.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.0%

Home & Under 2.57.9%

Draw & BTTS4.0%

Draw & Under 2.52.4%

Draw & Over 2.52.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & Over 2.51.5%

Away & BTTS1.5%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Away & No BTTS0.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.4%

HT Home Win77.6%

HT/FT Home/Home76.1%

HT Over 1.567.8%

2nd Half More Goals49.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.532.2%

HT Both Teams Score24.6%

Equal Goals Each Half17.6%

HT Draw17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.2%

HT Under 0.59.6%

HT Away Win5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.2%

HT/FT Away/Away1.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

Corners (12)

Home Most Corners80.0%

Home Over 4.5 Corners79.4%

Over 8.5 Corners68.6%

Under 11.5 Corners67.8%

Over 9.5 Corners56.3%

Under 10.5 Corners56.2%

Over 10.5 Corners43.8%

Under 9.5 Corners43.7%

Over 11.5 Corners32.2%

Under 8.5 Corners31.4%

Away Over 4.5 Corners27.5%

Away Most Corners12.1%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards84.4%

Over 3.5 Cards68.5%

Under 5.5 Cards67.4%

Under 4.5 Cards50.1%

Over 4.5 Cards49.9%

Over 5.5 Cards32.6%

Under 3.5 Cards31.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards18.7%

Under 2.5 Cards15.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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