Portugal · Primeira Liga

Sporting CP vs Alverca

Kick-off 20:30 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

87% confidence

Sporting CP 86.6% Draw 8.6% Alverca 4.1%

Over 2.5 - 73% BTTS - 60%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 9.3%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Sporting CP: 14 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.3%

Exact-score model probability

Sporting CP

W D W W W D

Form 4-2-0 Goals 19:8 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Alverca

D L L D L W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:8 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 2

Sporting CP 2wins ·0 draws ·Alverca 0wins

Sporting CP 4-1 AlvercaMar 22, 2026

Sporting CP 2-0 AlvercaOct 31, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sporting CP win86.6%

Draw8.6%

Alverca win4.1%

Over 1.5 goals88.8%

Over 2.5 goals73.0%

Over 3.5 goals52.7%

Both teams to score60.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

91.2%

Home Over 1.5

87.8%

Home Win

87.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home96.0%

Home or Draw (1X)94.7%

Home or Away (12)91.2%

Home Win87.6%

Both Halves Over 0.580.5%

Goal in Both Halves80.5%

Draw or Away (X2)10.7%

Draw7.1%

Exactly 1 Goal4.6%

Draw No Bet - Away4.0%

Away Win3.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.3%

Over 1.5 Goals92.8%

Over 2.5 Goals82.2%

Under 5.5 Goals70.0%

Over 3.5 Goals66.0%

4+ Goals66.0%

Under 4.5 Goals52.8%

Total Goals Even49.2%

Total Goals Odd49.1%

Over 4.5 Goals47.2%

2-4 Goals45.5%

3-4 Goals35.0%

Under 3.5 Goals34.0%

1-3 Goals31.4%

Over 5.5 Goals30.0%

2-3 Goals26.8%

Under 2.5 Goals17.8%

Exactly 3 Goals16.2%

1-2 Goals15.1%

Exactly 2 Goals10.6%

Under 1.5 Goals7.2%

Under 0.5 Goals2.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

Away Team to Score53.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.9%

Home Clean Sheet45.0%

Home Win to Nil44.0%

Away Clean Sheet2.2%

Away Win to Nil1.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.587.8%

Home Over 2.571.9%

Home 3+ Goals71.9%

Away Over 0.553.3%

Away Exactly 045.0%

Away Exactly 135.2%

Away Over 1.518.1%

Home Exactly 215.9%

Away Exactly 213.7%

Home Exactly 18.3%

Away Over 2.54.4%

Away 3+ Goals4.4%

Home Exactly 02.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)87.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)87.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)76.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away76.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)74.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home74.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)60.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away60.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)56.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home56.6%

Home to win by 3+56.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)41.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away41.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)37.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home37.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)23.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away23.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)22.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home22.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.9%

Home to win by 217.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.2%

Home to win by 113.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home11.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away10.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.7%

Away to win by 12.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.7%

Away to win by 20.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.576.5%

BTTS & Over 2.549.2%

Home & No BTTS44.0%

Home & BTTS43.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.533.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.2%

Home & Under 2.511.1%

Draw & BTTS6.1%

Draw & Under 2.54.0%

Draw & Over 2.53.1%

BTTS & Under 2.53.0%

Away & Over 2.52.5%

Away & BTTS2.4%

Away & No BTTS1.2%

Away & Under 2.51.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.4%

HT Home Win71.7%

HT/FT Home/Home69.5%

HT Over 1.561.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.9%

HT Under 1.538.6%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score24.3%

HT Draw21.4%

Equal Goals Each Half18.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.4%

HT Under 0.512.6%

HT Away Win6.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

HT/FT Away/Away1.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.3%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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