Portugal · Primeira Liga

Sporting CP vs Moreirense

Full time · 1:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

Sporting CP 83.1% Draw 10.5% Moreirense 6.1%

Over 2.5 - 71% BTTS - 80%

✓ Pick was correct (1:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

88%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.9%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Sporting CP: 12 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.9%

Exact-score model probability

Sporting CP

W W L L W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

Moreirense

W W L D W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Sporting CP 4wins ·0 draws ·Moreirense 1wins

Sporting CP 3-0 MoreirenseFeb 21, 2026

Sporting CP 3-0 MoreirenseSep 22, 2025

Sporting CP 3-1 MoreirenseApr 18, 2025

Sporting CP 1-2 MoreirenseDec 5, 2024

Sporting CP 2-0 MoreirenseFeb 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sporting CP win83.1%

Draw10.5%

Moreirense win6.1%

Over 1.5 goals87.5%

Over 2.5 goals70.7%

Over 3.5 goals49.7%

Both teams to score79.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

88.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

88.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)88.4%

Draw No Bet - Home87.3%

Home or Away (12)86.5%

Both Halves Over 0.579.9%

Goal in Both Halves79.9%

Home Win75.6%

Draw or Away (X2)23.8%

Draw12.8%

Draw No Bet - Away12.7%

Away Win10.9%

Exactly 1 Goal4.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals93.4%

Over 2.5 Goals82.4%

Under 5.5 Goals70.3%

Over 3.5 Goals65.7%

4+ Goals65.7%

Under 4.5 Goals53.2%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Over 4.5 Goals46.8%

2-4 Goals46.6%

3-4 Goals35.6%

Under 3.5 Goals34.3%

1-3 Goals32.5%

Over 5.5 Goals29.7%

2-3 Goals27.7%

Under 2.5 Goals17.6%

Exactly 3 Goals16.7%

1-2 Goals15.9%

Exactly 2 Goals11.0%

Under 1.5 Goals6.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.6%

Away Team to Score71.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.5%

Home Clean Sheet28.1%

Home Win to Nil27.1%

Away Clean Sheet3.8%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.6%

Home Over 1.583.2%

Away Over 0.571.2%

Home Over 2.562.9%

Home 3+ Goals62.9%

Away Over 1.535.7%

Away Exactly 135.5%

Away Exactly 028.1%

Away Exactly 222.4%

Home Exactly 220.3%

Away Over 2.513.3%

Away 3+ Goals13.3%

Home Exactly 112.4%

Home Exactly 03.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)76.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away76.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)75.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)60.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away60.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)57.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home57.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)41.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away41.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)38.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home38.6%

Home to win by 3+38.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away23.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)22.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home22.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.1%

Home to win by 219.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.9%

Home to win by 117.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.9%

Away to win by 16.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.8%

Away to win by 22.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.2%

Away to win by 3+1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.566.3%

BTTS & Over 2.564.1%

Home & BTTS48.5%

Home & No BTTS27.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.5%

Draw & BTTS11.7%

Home & Under 2.59.2%

Away & Over 2.58.7%

Away & BTTS8.2%

Draw & Over 2.57.3%

Draw & Under 2.55.5%

BTTS & Under 2.54.4%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.0%

HT Over 1.560.5%

HT Home Win59.4%

HT/FT Home/Home54.8%

2nd Half More Goals48.7%

HT Under 1.539.5%

HT Both Teams Score33.4%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw26.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.8%

HT Away Win14.2%

HT Under 0.513.0%

HT/FT Away/Away6.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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