Portugal · Primeira Liga

Sporting CP vs Vitória SC

Kick-off 20:15 · Fri, Aug 14

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

72% confidence

Sporting CP 72.0% Draw 13.3% Vitória SC 14.7%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 83%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Sporting CP: 12 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Sporting CP

D W W W D D

Form 3-3-0 Goals 17:7 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1.17

Vitória SC

L L W W L W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 7:8 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 2

Sporting CP 1wins ·1 draws ·Vitória SC 0wins

Sporting CP 2-0 Vitória SCMay 17, 2025

Sporting CP 4-4 Vitória SCJan 3, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sporting CP win72.0%

Draw13.3%

Vitória SC win14.7%

Over 1.5 goals98.1%

Over 2.5 goals92.4%

Over 3.5 goals82.2%

Both teams to score83.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.0%

Goal in Both Halves87.0%

Home or Away (12)84.9%

Home or Draw (1X)81.2%

Draw No Bet - Home79.1%

Home Win67.2%

Draw or Away (X2)31.7%

Draw No Bet - Away20.9%

Away Win17.7%

Draw14.0%

Exactly 1 Goal2.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals96.2%

Over 2.5 Goals90.0%

Over 3.5 Goals78.6%

4+ Goals78.6%

Over 4.5 Goals62.9%

Under 5.5 Goals54.3%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Over 5.5 Goals45.7%

Under 4.5 Goals37.1%

2-4 Goals33.3%

3-4 Goals27.1%

Under 3.5 Goals21.4%

1-3 Goals19.9%

2-3 Goals17.7%

Exactly 3 Goals11.4%

Under 2.5 Goals10.0%

1-2 Goals8.5%

Exactly 2 Goals6.2%

Under 1.5 Goals3.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

Away Team to Score84.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.9%

Home Clean Sheet14.3%

Home Win to Nil13.9%

Away Clean Sheet2.9%

Away Win to Nil2.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 1.585.9%

Away Over 0.584.6%

Home Over 2.567.8%

Home 3+ Goals67.8%

Away Over 1.556.9%

Away Over 2.530.1%

Away 3+ Goals30.1%

Away Exactly 127.7%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Home Exactly 218.1%

Away Exactly 014.3%

Home Exactly 110.2%

Home Exactly 02.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away79.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)67.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)65.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away65.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)50.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home50.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)48.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away48.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)33.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home33.2%

Home to win by 3+33.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)31.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away31.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home19.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 117.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 216.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home9.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.3%

Away to win by 19.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.0%

Away to win by 25.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.4%

Away to win by 3+3.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.3%

Home & Over 2.563.1%

Home & BTTS53.3%

Away & Over 2.516.1%

Away & BTTS15.3%

Home & No BTTS13.9%

Draw & BTTS13.6%

Draw & Over 2.510.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.1%

Home & Under 2.54.1%

Draw & Under 2.53.3%

BTTS & Under 2.52.8%

Away & No BTTS2.5%

Away & Under 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.5%

HT Over 1.570.6%

HT Home Win54.5%

2nd Half More Goals50.5%

HT/FT Home/Home48.0%

HT Both Teams Score46.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.529.4%

HT Draw25.0%

HT Away Win20.4%

Equal Goals Each Half17.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.5%

HT/FT Away/Away10.4%

HT Under 0.58.5%

HT/FT Away/Home5.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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