USA · Major League Soccer

Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City

Full time · 1:1

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

73% confidence

Sporting Kansas City 11.1% Draw 15.6% St. Louis City 73.3%

Over 2.5 - 79% BTTS - 67%

✓ Pick was correct (1:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.1%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to St. Louis City: 3 points versus 16 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.1%

Exact-score model probability

Sporting Kansas City

L L L W L L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 5:14 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.33

St. Louis City

W D W W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 14:5 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 1

Sporting Kansas City 0wins ·0 draws ·St. Louis City 1wins

Sporting Kansas City 2-3 St. Louis CityJul 17, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sporting Kansas City win11.1%

Draw15.6%

St. Louis City win73.3%

Over 1.5 goals92.7%

Over 2.5 goals78.6%

Over 3.5 goals59.9%

Both teams to score66.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.7%

Away Most Corners

91.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

90.4%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)87.8%

Draw No Bet - Away86.2%

Home or Away (12)85.5%

Both Halves Over 0.576.2%

Goal in Both Halves76.2%

Away Win73.7%

Home or Draw (1X)25.9%

Draw14.1%

Draw No Bet - Home13.8%

Home Win11.8%

Exactly 1 Goal6.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals91.7%

Over 2.5 Goals78.3%

Under 5.5 Goals76.1%

Under 4.5 Goals59.8%

Over 3.5 Goals59.7%

4+ Goals59.7%

2-4 Goals51.5%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals40.3%

Over 4.5 Goals40.2%

1-3 Goals38.4%

3-4 Goals38.1%

2-3 Goals32.0%

Over 5.5 Goals23.9%

Under 2.5 Goals21.7%

1-2 Goals19.8%

Exactly 3 Goals18.6%

Exactly 2 Goals13.4%

Under 1.5 Goals8.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.6%

Home Team to Score68.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.5%

Away Clean Sheet30.7%

Away Win to Nil29.1%

Home Clean Sheet5.0%

Home Win to Nil3.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.6%

Away Over 1.579.7%

Home Over 0.568.9%

Away Over 2.557.3%

Away 3+ Goals57.3%

Home Exactly 136.1%

Home Over 1.532.8%

Home Exactly 030.7%

Away Exactly 222.4%

Home Exactly 221.3%

Away Exactly 114.9%

Home Over 2.511.5%

Home 3+ Goals11.5%

Away Exactly 05.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away95.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)90.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home90.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away87.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)80.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home80.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)73.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)64.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home64.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)54.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away54.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)45.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home45.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)34.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away34.9%

Away to win by 3+34.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)25.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home25.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.6%

Away to win by 219.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away19.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.2%

Away to win by 119.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw15.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)11.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw10.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away9.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.5%

Home to win by 17.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home4.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.0%

Home to win by 23.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.2%

Home to win by 3+1.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.562.2%

BTTS & Over 2.560.1%

Away & BTTS44.6%

Away & No BTTS29.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.9%

Draw & BTTS12.6%

Away & Under 2.511.5%

Home & Over 2.58.9%

Home & BTTS8.4%

Draw & Over 2.57.1%

Draw & Under 2.57.0%

BTTS & Under 2.55.4%

Home & No BTTS3.4%

Home & Under 2.52.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.7%

HT Away Win57.1%

HT Over 1.556.1%

HT/FT Away/Away52.3%

2nd Half More Goals47.9%

HT Under 1.543.9%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score30.5%

HT Draw28.3%

Equal Goals Each Half19.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.4%

HT Under 0.515.3%

HT Home Win14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.8%

HT/FT Home/Home6.6%

HT/FT Home/Away4.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.2%

Corners (12)

Away Most Corners91.6%

Away Over 4.5 Corners84.2%

Under 11.5 Corners73.4%

Over 8.5 Corners62.8%

Under 10.5 Corners62.5%

Over 9.5 Corners50.0%

Under 9.5 Corners50.0%

Over 10.5 Corners37.5%

Under 8.5 Corners37.2%

Over 11.5 Corners26.6%

Home Over 4.5 Corners10.9%

Home Most Corners4.2%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards82.6%

Under 5.5 Cards70.3%

Over 3.5 Cards65.8%

Under 4.5 Cards53.2%

Over 4.5 Cards46.8%

Under 3.5 Cards34.2%

Over 5.5 Cards29.7%

Over 0.5 Red Cards18.0%

Under 2.5 Cards17.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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