Germany · 2. Bundesliga

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg

Kick-off 17:30 · Fri, Sep 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 42.0% Draw 20.9% 1. FC Magdeburg 37.1%

Over 2.5 - 83% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

81%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to 1. FC Magdeburg: 7 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.1%

Exact-score model probability

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

L L D W L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

1. FC Magdeburg

W W W L L W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 11:8 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

SpVgg Greuther Fürth win42.0%

Draw20.9%

1. FC Magdeburg win37.1%

Over 1.5 goals94.6%

Over 2.5 goals82.5%

Over 3.5 goals65.6%

Both teams to score80.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

90.0%

Home Over 0.5

90.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.5%

Both Halves Over 0.579.4%

Goal in Both Halves79.4%

Home or Draw (1X)62.1%

Draw or Away (X2)57.2%

Draw No Bet - Home53.1%

Draw No Bet - Away46.9%

Home Win42.7%

Away Win37.8%

Draw19.4%

Exactly 1 Goal5.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals93.7%

Over 2.5 Goals82.4%

Under 5.5 Goals70.6%

Over 3.5 Goals65.5%

4+ Goals65.5%

Under 4.5 Goals53.5%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-4 Goals47.2%

Over 4.5 Goals46.5%

3-4 Goals35.9%

Under 3.5 Goals34.5%

1-3 Goals33.3%

Over 5.5 Goals29.4%

2-3 Goals28.2%

Under 2.5 Goals17.6%

Exactly 3 Goals16.9%

1-2 Goals16.3%

Exactly 2 Goals11.3%

Under 1.5 Goals6.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.0%

Away Team to Score88.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.2%

Home Clean Sheet11.3%

Home Win to Nil10.2%

Away Clean Sheet9.9%

Away Win to Nil8.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.0%

Away Over 0.588.6%

Home Over 1.567.1%

Away Over 1.563.9%

Home Over 2.540.7%

Home 3+ Goals40.7%

Away Over 2.537.0%

Away 3+ Goals37.0%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 226.5%

Away Exactly 124.7%

Home Exactly 122.9%

Away Exactly 011.3%

Home Exactly 09.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)78.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home78.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)74.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away74.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)62.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home62.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)57.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away57.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)42.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)37.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)25.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home25.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)21.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away21.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.6%

Home to win by 117.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.6%

Away to win by 116.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.6%

Home to win by 3+12.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.5%

Home to win by 212.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.1%

Away to win by 211.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.1%

Away to win by 3+10.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.574.1%

Home & Over 2.537.1%

Away & Over 2.532.7%

Home & BTTS32.5%

Away & BTTS29.0%

Draw & BTTS18.3%

Draw & Over 2.512.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.8%

Home & No BTTS10.2%

Away & No BTTS8.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.3%

Draw & Under 2.56.8%

BTTS & Under 2.55.7%

Home & Under 2.55.6%

Away & Under 2.55.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.7%

HT Over 1.560.0%

2nd Half More Goals48.6%

HT Both Teams Score40.4%

HT Under 1.540.0%

HT Home Win36.3%

HT Away Win33.1%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw30.6%

HT/FT Home/Home27.0%

HT/FT Away/Away23.5%

Equal Goals Each Half19.1%

HT Under 0.513.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away3.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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