Germany · 2. Bundesliga

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg

Kick-off 12:00 · Sat, Aug 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 51.7% Draw 22.8% 1. FC Nürnberg 25.5%

Over 2.5 - 71% BTTS - 70%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score (GG)

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

54%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

D W L W L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.83

1. FC Nürnberg

W D W D

Form 2-2-0 Goals 10:4 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0wins ·1 draws ·1. FC Nürnberg 0wins

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC NürnbergMay 3, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

SpVgg Greuther Fürth win51.7%

Draw22.8%

1. FC Nürnberg win25.5%

Over 1.5 goals89.1%

Over 2.5 goals70.8%

Over 3.5 goals49.8%

Both teams to score69.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

88.4%

Home Over 0.5

88.4%

Over 1.5 Goals

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.3%

Home or Draw (1X)73.4%

Both Halves Over 0.570.0%

Goal in Both Halves70.0%

Draw No Bet - Home66.5%

Home Win52.7%

Draw or Away (X2)47.2%

Draw No Bet - Away33.5%

Away Win26.6%

Draw20.6%

Exactly 1 Goal9.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.4%

Over 1.5 Goals88.0%

Under 5.5 Goals83.6%

Over 2.5 Goals70.8%

Under 4.5 Goals69.5%

2-4 Goals57.5%

Under 3.5 Goals50.3%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals49.7%

4+ Goals49.7%

1-3 Goals47.6%

3-4 Goals40.3%

2-3 Goals38.2%

Over 4.5 Goals30.5%

Under 2.5 Goals29.2%

1-2 Goals26.6%

Exactly 3 Goals21.0%

Exactly 2 Goals17.2%

Over 5.5 Goals16.4%

Under 1.5 Goals12.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.6%

Exactly 0 Goals2.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.4%

Away Team to Score77.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.3%

Home Clean Sheet22.3%

Home Win to Nil19.7%

Away Clean Sheet11.5%

Away Win to Nil8.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.4%

Away Over 0.577.7%

Home Over 1.563.6%

Away Over 1.544.2%

Home Over 2.536.7%

Home 3+ Goals36.7%

Away Exactly 133.5%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 225.1%

Home Exactly 124.9%

Away Exactly 022.3%

Away Over 2.519.1%

Away 3+ Goals19.1%

Home Exactly 011.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)84.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away84.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)73.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home73.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)68.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away68.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)47.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away47.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)31.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home31.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)26.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.0%

Home to win by 121.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)16.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home16.0%

Home to win by 3+16.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 215.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.6%

Away to win by 114.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.6%

Away to win by 27.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.4%

Away to win by 3+4.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.560.4%

Home & Over 2.541.2%

Home & BTTS33.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.9%

Away & Over 2.519.8%

Home & No BTTS19.7%

Draw & BTTS18.1%

Away & BTTS17.6%

Home & Under 2.511.6%

Draw & Under 2.510.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.4%

Draw & Over 2.59.7%

Away & No BTTS8.9%

BTTS & Under 2.58.3%

Away & Under 2.56.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.8%

HT Under 1.551.0%

HT Over 1.549.0%

2nd Half More Goals46.6%

HT Home Win41.3%

HT Draw34.1%

HT/FT Home/Home33.8%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score30.5%

HT Away Win24.6%

Equal Goals Each Half21.4%

HT Under 0.519.2%

HT/FT Away/Away15.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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