Scotland · Premiership

ST Johnstone vs Celtic

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Sep 9

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

72% confidence

ST Johnstone 10.6% Draw 17.3% Celtic 72.0%

Over 2.5 - 61% BTTS - 91%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 6.1%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Celtic: 7 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.1%

Exact-score model probability

ST Johnstone

D L W L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:10 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Celtic

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 16:6 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

ST Johnstone 1wins ·0 draws ·Celtic 4wins

ST Johnstone 1-0 CelticApr 6, 2025

ST Johnstone 0-4 CelticDec 29, 2024

ST Johnstone 0-6 CelticSep 28, 2024

ST Johnstone 1-3 CelticMar 16, 2024

ST Johnstone 1-3 CelticDec 3, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

ST Johnstone win10.6%

Draw17.3%

Celtic win72.0%

Over 1.5 goals82.4%

Over 2.5 goals60.9%

Over 3.5 goals38.6%

Both teams to score90.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.8%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.0%

Away Over 1.5

87.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.5%

Goal in Both Halves87.5%

Home or Away (12)86.0%

Draw or Away (X2)84.4%

Draw No Bet - Away83.7%

Away Win72.0%

Home or Draw (1X)26.5%

Draw No Bet - Home16.3%

Home Win14.0%

Draw12.5%

Exactly 1 Goal2.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals95.9%

Over 2.5 Goals90.0%

Over 3.5 Goals79.0%

4+ Goals79.0%

Over 4.5 Goals63.7%

Under 5.5 Goals53.3%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

Total Goals Even49.2%

Over 5.5 Goals46.7%

Under 4.5 Goals36.3%

2-4 Goals32.2%

3-4 Goals26.3%

Under 3.5 Goals21.0%

1-3 Goals19.1%

2-3 Goals16.9%

Exactly 3 Goals11.0%

Under 2.5 Goals10.0%

1-2 Goals8.1%

Exactly 2 Goals5.9%

Under 1.5 Goals4.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.2%

Home Team to Score82.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)80.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.9%

Away Clean Sheet16.4%

Away Win to Nil16.0%

Home Clean Sheet2.3%

Home Win to Nil1.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.2%

Away Over 1.587.5%

Home Over 0.582.1%

Away Over 2.571.1%

Away 3+ Goals71.1%

Home Over 1.552.7%

Home Exactly 129.4%

Home Over 2.526.3%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Home 3+ Goals26.3%

Home Exactly 016.4%

Away Exactly 216.4%

Away Exactly 18.7%

Away Exactly 02.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)92.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)86.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home86.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)84.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away84.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)75.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home75.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)72.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)60.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home60.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)55.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away55.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)42.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home42.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)38.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away38.5%

Away to win by 3+38.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)26.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home26.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)23.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away23.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.2%

Away to win by 217.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.3%

Away to win by 116.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw15.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)14.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away12.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw11.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.7%

Home to win by 17.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw6.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home6.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away5.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.9%

Home to win by 23.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.4%

Home to win by 3+2.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.577.6%

Away & Over 2.567.8%

Away & BTTS56.0%

Away & No BTTS16.0%

Home & Over 2.512.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.5%

Home & BTTS12.1%

Draw & BTTS12.1%

Draw & Over 2.59.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.9%

Away & Under 2.54.2%

Draw & Under 2.53.0%

BTTS & Under 2.52.6%

Home & No BTTS1.9%

Home & Under 2.51.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.8%

HT Over 1.571.4%

HT Away Win58.6%

HT/FT Away/Away52.9%

2nd Half More Goals50.6%

HT Both Teams Score45.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.528.6%

HT Draw23.8%

HT Home Win17.6%

Equal Goals Each Half16.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.9%

HT Under 0.58.2%

HT/FT Home/Home8.1%

HT/FT Home/Away5.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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