Scotland · Premiership

ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

39% confidence

ST Johnstone 39.0% Draw 27.5% Dundee Utd 33.4%

Over 2.5 - 43% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

78%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to ST Johnstone: 4 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.5%

Exact-score model probability

ST Johnstone

L D L W L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

Dundee Utd

L L D D D L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 2:11 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

ST Johnstone 2wins ·0 draws ·Dundee Utd 3wins

ST Johnstone 0-1 Dundee UtdApr 12, 2025

ST Johnstone 1-2 Dundee UtdDec 26, 2024

ST Johnstone 0-2 Dundee UtdAug 24, 2024

ST Johnstone 1-0 Dundee UtdMay 6, 2023

ST Johnstone 2-1 Dundee UtdFeb 18, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

ST Johnstone win39.0%

Draw27.5%

Dundee Utd win33.4%

Over 1.5 goals69.1%

Over 2.5 goals43.0%

Over 3.5 goals22.1%

Both teams to score68.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

90.4%

Home Over 0.5

90.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)81.8%

Home or Away (12)81.1%

Draw No Bet - Home77.6%

Both Halves Over 0.568.5%

Goal in Both Halves68.5%

Home Win63.0%

Draw or Away (X2)36.9%

Draw No Bet - Away22.4%

Draw18.8%

Away Win18.1%

Exactly 1 Goal10.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.1%

Over 1.5 Goals86.9%

Under 5.5 Goals85.1%

Under 4.5 Goals71.5%

Over 2.5 Goals68.9%

2-4 Goals58.5%

Under 3.5 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

1-3 Goals49.6%

Over 3.5 Goals47.5%

4+ Goals47.5%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.4%

Under 2.5 Goals31.1%

Over 4.5 Goals28.5%

1-2 Goals28.2%

Exactly 3 Goals21.4%

Exactly 2 Goals18.0%

Over 5.5 Goals14.9%

Under 1.5 Goals13.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.9%

Exactly 0 Goals2.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.4%

Away Team to Score69.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)63.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.8%

Home Clean Sheet30.1%

Home Win to Nil27.2%

Away Clean Sheet9.5%

Away Win to Nil6.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.4%

Away Over 0.569.9%

Home Over 1.568.1%

Home Over 2.541.8%

Home 3+ Goals41.8%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Away Over 1.533.7%

Away Exactly 030.1%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Home Exactly 122.3%

Away Exactly 221.7%

Away Over 2.512.1%

Away 3+ Goals12.1%

Home Exactly 09.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)77.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away77.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)63.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)58.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away58.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)41.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home41.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)36.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away36.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)22.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home22.5%

Home to win by 3+22.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.9%

Home to win by 121.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.6%

Home to win by 218.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.2%

Away to win by 111.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.8%

Away to win by 24.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.1%

Away to win by 3+2.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.555.2%

Home & Over 2.548.4%

Home & BTTS35.8%

Home & No BTTS27.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.523.0%

Draw & BTTS15.9%

Home & Under 2.514.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.7%

Away & Over 2.512.7%

Away & BTTS11.5%

Draw & Under 2.510.9%

BTTS & Under 2.58.1%

Draw & Over 2.57.9%

Away & No BTTS6.6%

Away & Under 2.55.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.8%

HT Under 1.552.5%

HT Home Win47.9%

HT Over 1.547.5%

2nd Half More Goals46.3%

HT/FT Home/Home41.8%

HT Draw33.5%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score27.3%

Equal Goals Each Half21.8%

HT Under 0.520.2%

HT Away Win18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.4%

HT/FT Away/Away10.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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