Scotland · Premiership
ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
📊 Our Prediction
Away Win
38% confidence
Over 2.5 - 47%
BTTS - 64%
🎯 Best Pick
Away Win
Kilmarnock form
⚠️ Market disagrees
- bookies say 30%
⚠️ AIs disagree
▸ Show 2 alternatives
Over 1.5 Goals
High xG
Both Teams Score (GG)
BTTS rate
🤖 AI Match Analysis
ST Johnstone is in poor form, losing 6 of their last 10 matches. Kilmarnock has a strong attacking threat, with an average of 1.9 goals scored per game. The head-to-head history also favors Kilmarnock, with 4 wins in their last 6 meetings. With Kilmarnock's recent signings and ST Johnstone's injury concerns, the away team has the upper hand.
Top Tip
Kilmarnock to win, given their strong form and attacking prowess
ST Johnstone
Kilmarnock
📈 Probability Breakdown
ST Johnstone win34.8%
Draw27.5%
Kilmarnock win37.7%
Over 1.5 goals72.7%
Over 2.5 goals46.9%
Over 3.5 goals25.3%
Both teams to score63.9%
🎯 Full Market Board
Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.
Under 5.5 Goals
91.1%
Away +1.5 (Handicap)
90.9%
European Handicap 0:2 - Away
90.9%
Match Result (11)
Home or Away (12)77.6%
Draw or Away (X2)76.8%
Draw No Bet - Away70.1%
Both Halves Over 0.560.7%
Goal in Both Halves60.7%
Away Win54.4%
Home or Draw (1X)45.6%
Draw No Bet - Home29.9%
Home Win23.2%
Draw22.4%
Exactly 1 Goal14.4%
Goals Over/Under (23)
Over 0.5 Goals95.3%
Under 5.5 Goals91.1%
Over 1.5 Goals80.8%
Under 4.5 Goals80.7%
Under 3.5 Goals63.6%
2-4 Goals61.5%
Over 2.5 Goals58.8%
1-3 Goals58.8%
Total Goals Even50.1%
Total Goals Odd49.9%
2-3 Goals44.4%
Under 2.5 Goals41.2%
3-4 Goals39.5%
1-2 Goals36.5%
Over 3.5 Goals36.4%
4+ Goals36.4%
Exactly 3 Goals22.4%
Exactly 2 Goals22.0%
Over 4.5 Goals19.3%
Under 1.5 Goals19.2%
Over 5.5 Goals8.9%
Under 0.5 Goals4.7%
Exactly 0 Goals4.7%
BTTS & Defence (8)
Away Team to Score84.9%
Home Team to Score68.7%
Both Teams Score (GG)58.3%
No Both Teams Score (NG)41.7%
Away Clean Sheet31.3%
Away Win to Nil26.6%
Home Clean Sheet15.1%
Home Win to Nil10.4%
Team Goals (14)
Away Over 0.584.9%
Home Over 0.568.7%
Away Over 1.556.3%
Home Exactly 136.4%
Home Over 1.532.3%
Home Exactly 031.3%
Away Over 2.529.3%
Away 3+ Goals29.3%
Away Exactly 128.6%
Away Exactly 227.0%
Home Exactly 221.1%
Away Exactly 015.1%
Home Over 2.511.2%
Home 3+ Goals11.2%
Handicap & Margin (60)
Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%
Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%
European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%
Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%
Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%
European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.3%
Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%
European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.1%
Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.2%
European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.2%
Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.3%
European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.3%
Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.9%
European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.9%
Home +2.5 (Handicap)85.3%
European Handicap 3:0 - Home85.3%
Away +0.5 (Handicap)76.8%
European Handicap 0:1 - Away76.8%
Home +1.5 (Handicap)68.7%
European Handicap 2:0 - Home68.7%
Away -0.5 (Handicap)54.4%
Home +0.5 (Handicap)45.6%
European Handicap 1:0 - Home45.6%
Away -1.5 (Handicap)31.3%
European Handicap 1:0 - Away31.3%
Home -0.5 (Handicap)23.2%
European Handicap 1:0 - Draw23.1%
Away to win by 123.1%
European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.6%
Away to win by 216.6%
Away -2.5 (Handicap)14.7%
European Handicap 2:0 - Away14.7%
Away to win by 3+14.7%
European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.2%
Home to win by 114.2%
Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.0%
European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.0%
European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.0%
European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.3%
Home to win by 26.3%
Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.7%
European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.7%
European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.8%
Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.8%
European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.8%
Home to win by 3+2.8%
European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.1%
Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.9%
European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.9%
European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.4%
Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%
European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.7%
Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%
European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.5%
European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%
Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%
European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%
European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%
Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%
European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%
Combos (15)
BTTS & Over 2.547.9%
Away & Over 2.537.0%
No BTTS & Under 2.530.8%
Away & BTTS27.8%
Away & No BTTS26.6%
Draw & BTTS17.7%
Away & Under 2.517.4%
Draw & Under 2.515.1%
Home & Over 2.514.5%
Home & BTTS12.8%
No BTTS & Over 2.510.9%
Home & No BTTS10.4%
BTTS & Under 2.510.4%
Home & Under 2.58.7%
Draw & Over 2.57.3%
Half-Time & HT/FT (20)
HT Over 0.574.7%
HT Under 1.560.1%
2nd Half More Goals44.7%
HT Away Win40.9%
HT Over 1.539.9%
HT Draw37.9%
HT/FT Away/Away34.3%
1st Half More Goals31.5%
HT Under 0.525.3%
Equal Goals Each Half23.8%
HT Both Teams Score23.3%
HT Home Win21.2%
HT/FT Draw/Away16.9%
HT/FT Home/Home13.1%
HT/FT Draw/Draw12.6%
HT/FT Draw/Home8.4%
HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%
HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%
HT/FT Home/Away3.2%
HT/FT Away/Home1.7%
How we predict:
Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.