Scotland · Premiership

ST Johnstone vs Motherwell

Kick-off 20:45 · Wed, Oct 28

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

ST Johnstone 23.7% Draw 26.1% Motherwell 50.1%

Over 2.5 - 44% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

78%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Motherwell: 4 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.5%

Exact-score model probability

ST Johnstone

L D L W L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

Motherwell

W D L W D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

ST Johnstone 2wins ·0 draws ·Motherwell 3wins

ST Johnstone 2-3 MotherwellApr 26, 2025

ST Johnstone 2-1 MotherwellJan 25, 2025

ST Johnstone 1-2 MotherwellNov 9, 2024

ST Johnstone 1-2 MotherwellAug 31, 2024

ST Johnstone 2-1 MotherwellMay 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

ST Johnstone win23.7%

Draw26.1%

Motherwell win50.1%

Over 1.5 goals69.5%

Over 2.5 goals43.5%

Over 3.5 goals22.5%

Both teams to score67.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

84.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

84.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)84.2%

Home or Away (12)83.7%

Draw No Bet - Away81.4%

Both Halves Over 0.575.2%

Goal in Both Halves75.2%

Away Win68.1%

Home or Draw (1X)31.6%

Draw No Bet - Home18.6%

Draw16.1%

Home Win15.5%

Exactly 1 Goal6.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals91.2%

Under 5.5 Goals77.4%

Over 2.5 Goals77.2%

Under 4.5 Goals61.5%

Over 3.5 Goals58.1%

4+ Goals58.1%

2-4 Goals52.7%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals41.9%

1-3 Goals40.0%

3-4 Goals38.6%

Over 4.5 Goals38.5%

2-3 Goals33.1%

Under 2.5 Goals22.8%

Over 5.5 Goals22.6%

1-2 Goals20.9%

Exactly 3 Goals19.1%

Exactly 2 Goals14.0%

Under 1.5 Goals8.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score93.6%

Home Team to Score72.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.9%

Away Clean Sheet27.1%

Away Win to Nil25.5%

Home Clean Sheet6.2%

Home Win to Nil4.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.593.6%

Away Over 1.576.4%

Home Over 0.572.6%

Away Over 2.552.4%

Away 3+ Goals52.4%

Home Over 1.537.3%

Home Exactly 135.3%

Home Exactly 027.1%

Away Exactly 224.0%

Home Exactly 223.0%

Away Exactly 117.2%

Home Over 2.514.3%

Home 3+ Goals14.3%

Away Exactly 06.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away93.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home93.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)84.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home84.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away84.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)70.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home70.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)68.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)51.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home51.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)48.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away48.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)31.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home31.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)29.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away29.0%

Away to win by 3+29.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.2%

Away to win by 120.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.0%

Away to win by 219.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)15.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away15.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.4%

Home to win by 19.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away6.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home6.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw4.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw4.1%

Home to win by 24.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.9%

Home to win by 3+1.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.562.0%

Away & Over 2.556.9%

Away & BTTS42.7%

Away & No BTTS25.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.1%

Draw & BTTS14.4%

Home & Over 2.511.9%

Away & Under 2.511.2%

Home & BTTS11.0%

Draw & Over 2.58.3%

Draw & Under 2.57.8%

BTTS & Under 2.56.1%

Home & No BTTS4.5%

Home & Under 2.53.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.1%

HT Over 1.554.8%

HT Away Win52.7%

2nd Half More Goals47.7%

HT/FT Away/Away47.0%

HT Under 1.545.2%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score31.7%

HT Draw29.9%

Equal Goals Each Half20.1%

HT Home Win17.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.0%

HT Under 0.515.9%

HT/FT Home/Home8.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away4.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Away/Home1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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