USA · Major League Soccer

St. Louis City vs FC Dallas

Kick-off 00:00 · Mon, Aug 31

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

St. Louis City 82.5% Draw 9.7% FC Dallas 7.8%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 78%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to St. Louis City: 14 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.4%

Exact-score model probability

St. Louis City

W D W D W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.83

FC Dallas

L W W D L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:12 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2

📈 Probability Breakdown

St. Louis City win82.5%

Draw9.7%

FC Dallas win7.8%

Over 1.5 goals98.2%

Over 2.5 goals93.0%

Over 3.5 goals83.1%

Both teams to score77.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

91.1%

Over 2.5 Goals

89.9%

Home Over 1.5

89.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home91.1%

Both Halves Over 0.589.2%

Goal in Both Halves89.2%

Home or Draw (1X)88.9%

Home or Away (12)87.8%

Home Win80.1%

Draw or Away (X2)16.6%

Draw8.9%

Draw No Bet - Away8.9%

Away Win7.8%

Exactly 1 Goal1.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.4%

Over 1.5 Goals94.7%

Over 2.5 Goals89.9%

Over 3.5 Goals80.4%

4+ Goals80.4%

Over 4.5 Goals66.4%

Over 5.5 Goals50.0%

Under 5.5 Goals50.0%

Total Goals Even48.4%

Total Goals Odd48.3%

Under 4.5 Goals33.6%

2-4 Goals28.4%

3-4 Goals23.5%

Under 3.5 Goals19.6%

1-3 Goals16.0%

2-3 Goals14.4%

Under 2.5 Goals10.1%

Exactly 3 Goals9.5%

1-2 Goals6.5%

Under 1.5 Goals5.3%

Exactly 2 Goals4.9%

Under 0.5 Goals3.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.4%

Away Team to Score75.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.2%

Home Clean Sheet20.9%

Home Win to Nil20.6%

Away Clean Sheet1.3%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.4%

Home Over 1.589.7%

Home Over 2.577.4%

Home 3+ Goals77.4%

Away Over 0.575.8%

Away Over 1.543.8%

Away Exactly 132.0%

Away Exactly 224.5%

Away Exactly 020.9%

Away Over 2.519.3%

Away 3+ Goals19.3%

Home Exactly 212.3%

Home Exactly 15.7%

Home Exactly 01.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)86.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)76.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away76.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)66.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home66.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)62.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away62.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)50.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home50.4%

Home to win by 3+50.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)46.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away46.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)33.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home33.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)30.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away30.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)20.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home20.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 216.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.4%

Home to win by 113.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home9.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 14.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.0%

Away to win by 22.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.0%

Away to win by 3+1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.576.2%

BTTS & Over 2.572.9%

Home & BTTS59.5%

Home & No BTTS20.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.0%

Draw & BTTS8.6%

Away & Over 2.57.0%

Away & BTTS6.8%

Draw & Over 2.56.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.9%

Home & Under 2.53.9%

Draw & Under 2.52.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.9%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.9%

HT Over 1.574.0%

HT Home Win67.2%

HT/FT Home/Home63.4%

2nd Half More Goals51.1%

HT Both Teams Score42.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.526.0%

HT Draw20.5%

Equal Goals Each Half16.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.6%

HT Away Win12.3%

HT Under 0.57.1%

HT/FT Away/Home5.2%

HT/FT Away/Away4.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.3%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

Corners (12)

Home Over 4.5 Corners86.8%

Home Most Corners84.4%

Over 8.5 Corners78.2%

Over 9.5 Corners67.7%

Over 10.5 Corners56.0%

Under 11.5 Corners55.9%

Over 11.5 Corners44.1%

Under 10.5 Corners44.0%

Under 9.5 Corners32.3%

Away Over 4.5 Corners30.6%

Under 8.5 Corners21.8%

Away Most Corners9.3%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards86.1%

Over 3.5 Cards71.1%

Under 5.5 Cards64.5%

Over 4.5 Cards53.0%

Under 4.5 Cards47.0%

Over 5.5 Cards35.5%

Under 3.5 Cards28.9%

Over 0.5 Red Cards19.3%

Under 2.5 Cards13.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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