USA · Major League Soccer

St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo

Full time · 2:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

St. Louis City 43.2% Draw 26.6% Houston Dynamo 30.2%

Over 2.5 - 59% BTTS - 62%

✓ Pick was correct (2:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

82%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

62%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Houston Dynamo: 14 points versus 16 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.9%

Exact-score model probability

St. Louis City

D W D W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 12:6 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1

Houston Dynamo

W W W W W D

Form 5-1-0 Goals 10:1 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

St. Louis City win43.2%

Draw26.6%

Houston Dynamo win30.2%

Over 1.5 goals82.2%

Over 2.5 goals58.8%

Over 3.5 goals36.4%

Both teams to score62.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

90.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.2%

Home or Draw (1X)68.4%

Both Halves Over 0.560.7%

Goal in Both Halves60.7%

Draw No Bet - Home58.5%

Draw or Away (X2)55.4%

Home Win44.6%

Draw No Bet - Away41.5%

Away Win31.6%

Draw23.8%

Exactly 1 Goal14.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.3%

Under 5.5 Goals91.1%

Over 1.5 Goals80.8%

Under 4.5 Goals80.7%

Under 3.5 Goals63.6%

2-4 Goals61.5%

1-3 Goals58.9%

Over 2.5 Goals58.8%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.4%

Under 2.5 Goals41.2%

3-4 Goals39.5%

1-2 Goals36.5%

Over 3.5 Goals36.4%

4+ Goals36.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals22.0%

Over 4.5 Goals19.3%

Under 1.5 Goals19.2%

Over 5.5 Goals8.9%

Under 0.5 Goals4.7%

Exactly 0 Goals4.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score81.2%

Away Team to Score74.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)39.3%

Home Clean Sheet25.3%

Home Win to Nil20.5%

Away Clean Sheet18.7%

Away Win to Nil14.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.581.2%

Away Over 0.574.7%

Home Over 1.549.9%

Away Over 1.540.0%

Away Exactly 134.8%

Home Exactly 131.4%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Away Exactly 025.3%

Away Exactly 223.9%

Home Over 2.523.6%

Home 3+ Goals23.6%

Home Exactly 018.7%

Away Over 2.516.1%

Away 3+ Goals16.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)68.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home68.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)55.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away55.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)44.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)31.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.3%

Home to win by 121.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.5%

Away to win by 117.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.4%

Home to win by 213.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home9.8%

Home to win by 3+9.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.1%

Away to win by 29.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.0%

Away to win by 3+5.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.549.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.530.3%

Home & Over 2.530.0%

Home & BTTS24.1%

Away & Over 2.520.6%

Home & No BTTS20.5%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Away & BTTS17.6%

Draw & Under 2.515.6%

Home & Under 2.514.6%

Away & No BTTS14.0%

Away & Under 2.511.0%

BTTS & Under 2.510.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.0%

Draw & Over 2.58.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.7%

HT Under 1.560.1%

2nd Half More Goals44.7%

HT Over 1.539.9%

HT Draw38.6%

HT Home Win34.7%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT/FT Home/Home27.2%

HT Away Win26.6%

HT Under 0.525.3%

HT Both Teams Score24.4%

Equal Goals Each Half23.8%

HT/FT Away/Away18.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

Corners (12)

Home Most Corners83.7%

Home Over 4.5 Corners81.1%

Under 11.5 Corners68.7%

Over 8.5 Corners67.6%

Under 10.5 Corners57.3%

Over 9.5 Corners55.2%

Under 9.5 Corners44.8%

Over 10.5 Corners42.7%

Under 8.5 Corners32.4%

Over 11.5 Corners31.3%

Away Over 4.5 Corners22.8%

Away Most Corners9.5%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards84.4%

Over 3.5 Cards68.5%

Under 5.5 Cards67.4%

Under 4.5 Cards50.1%

Over 4.5 Cards49.9%

Over 5.5 Cards32.6%

Under 3.5 Cards31.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards18.7%

Under 2.5 Cards15.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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