USA · Major League Soccer

St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy

Kick-off 00:00 · Mon, Oct 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

86% confidence

St. Louis City 86.0% Draw 8.3% Los Angeles Galaxy 5.7%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

93%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

86%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 94.3% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 5.7% on the only losing outcome.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to St. Louis City: 14 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

94.3%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

5.7%

Only the uncovered result loses

St. Louis City

W W D W D W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 17:10 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1.67

Los Angeles Galaxy

D W D L W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 9:12 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 1

St. Louis City 1wins ·0 draws ·Los Angeles Galaxy 0wins

St. Louis City 3-1 Los Angeles GalaxyJul 23, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

St. Louis City win86.0%

Draw8.3%

Los Angeles Galaxy win5.7%

Over 1.5 goals98.2%

Over 2.5 goals92.9%

Over 3.5 goals83.0%

Both teams to score74.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

90.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

90.2%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home93.5%

Home or Draw (1X)90.2%

Both Halves Over 0.589.2%

Goal in Both Halves89.2%

Home or Away (12)88.5%

Home Win82.7%

Draw or Away (X2)13.2%

Draw7.5%

Draw No Bet - Away6.5%

Away Win5.8%

Exactly 1 Goal1.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.7%

Over 1.5 Goals94.0%

Over 2.5 Goals89.2%

Over 3.5 Goals79.7%

4+ Goals79.7%

Over 4.5 Goals65.7%

Under 5.5 Goals50.7%

Over 5.5 Goals49.3%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Under 4.5 Goals34.3%

2-4 Goals28.3%

3-4 Goals23.5%

Under 3.5 Goals20.3%

1-3 Goals16.0%

2-3 Goals14.4%

Under 2.5 Goals10.8%

Exactly 3 Goals9.5%

1-2 Goals6.5%

Under 1.5 Goals6.0%

Exactly 2 Goals4.9%

Under 0.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score71.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.2%

Home Clean Sheet24.3%

Home Win to Nil24.1%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.571.6%

Away Over 1.538.2%

Away Exactly 133.4%

Away Exactly 024.3%

Away Exactly 222.9%

Away Over 2.515.3%

Away 3+ Goals15.3%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)83.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)82.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)72.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away72.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)70.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home70.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)57.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away57.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)55.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home55.0%

Home to win by 3+55.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)41.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away41.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)38.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home38.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)25.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away25.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)23.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home23.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 215.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)13.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away13.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)12.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home12.1%

Home to win by 112.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.7%

Away to win by 13.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.5%

Away to win by 21.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.578.6%

BTTS & Over 2.569.1%

Home & BTTS58.7%

Home & No BTTS24.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.1%

Draw & BTTS7.2%

Draw & Over 2.55.4%

Away & Over 2.55.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.1%

Away & BTTS4.9%

Home & Under 2.54.1%

Draw & Under 2.52.0%

BTTS & Under 2.51.7%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.9%

HT Over 1.574.0%

HT Home Win70.5%

HT/FT Home/Home67.4%

2nd Half More Goals51.1%

HT Both Teams Score40.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.526.0%

HT Draw19.2%

Equal Goals Each Half16.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT Away Win10.2%

HT Under 0.57.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.8%

HT/FT Away/Away3.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

Corners (12)

Home Over 4.5 Corners87.4%

Over 8.5 Corners84.2%

Home Most Corners78.4%

Over 9.5 Corners75.4%

Over 10.5 Corners64.8%

Over 11.5 Corners53.4%

Under 11.5 Corners46.6%

Away Over 4.5 Corners44.4%

Under 10.5 Corners35.2%

Under 9.5 Corners24.6%

Under 8.5 Corners15.8%

Away Most Corners13.9%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards94.0%

Over 3.5 Cards85.2%

Over 4.5 Cards72.0%

Over 5.5 Cards56.1%

Under 5.5 Cards43.9%

Under 4.5 Cards28.0%

Over 0.5 Red Cards24.2%

Under 3.5 Cards14.8%

Under 2.5 Cards6.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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