USA · Major League Soccer

St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake

Full time · 1:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

91% confidence

St. Louis City 91.2% Draw 6.0% Real Salt Lake 2.8%

Over 2.5 - 90% BTTS - 60%

✓ Pick was correct (1:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 48%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 7.6%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to St. Louis City: 15 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.6%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

48%

Market does not fully agree

St. Louis City

W W W W L W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 13:6 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1

Real Salt Lake

L L D W W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:10 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

St. Louis City win91.2%

Draw6.0%

Real Salt Lake win2.8%

Over 1.5 goals97.3%

Over 2.5 goals90.3%

Over 3.5 goals78.0%

Both teams to score59.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.3%

Home or Away (12)

90.7%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home96.8%

Home or Draw (1X)93.1%

Home or Away (12)90.7%

Home Win87.8%

Both Halves Over 0.586.6%

Goal in Both Halves86.6%

Draw or Away (X2)8.2%

Draw5.3%

Draw No Bet - Away3.2%

Away Win2.9%

Exactly 1 Goal2.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.5%

Over 1.5 Goals93.1%

Over 2.5 Goals86.6%

Over 3.5 Goals74.9%

4+ Goals74.9%

Over 4.5 Goals59.0%

Under 5.5 Goals58.3%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals41.7%

Under 4.5 Goals41.0%

2-4 Goals34.2%

3-4 Goals27.7%

Under 3.5 Goals25.1%

1-3 Goals20.6%

2-3 Goals18.2%

Under 2.5 Goals13.4%

Exactly 3 Goals11.7%

1-2 Goals8.9%

Under 1.5 Goals6.9%

Exactly 2 Goals6.5%

Under 0.5 Goals4.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score57.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)57.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)42.9%

Home Clean Sheet38.2%

Home Win to Nil37.8%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.557.8%

Away Exactly 038.2%

Away Exactly 135.2%

Away Over 1.522.6%

Away Exactly 216.2%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Over 2.56.4%

Away 3+ Goals6.4%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home93.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)87.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)80.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)77.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home77.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)67.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away67.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)62.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home62.7%

Home to win by 3+62.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)50.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away50.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)45.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home45.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)33.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away33.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)28.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home28.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)18.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away18.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home15.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.9%

Home to win by 214.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw13.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.2%

Home to win by 110.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away8.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 12.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.6%

Away to win by 20.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.3%

BTTS & Over 2.555.3%

Home & BTTS50.0%

Home & No BTTS37.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.531.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.5%

Home & Under 2.56.5%

Draw & BTTS4.9%

Draw & Over 2.53.0%

Draw & Under 2.52.3%

Away & Over 2.52.3%

Away & BTTS2.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.7%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.3%

HT Home Win75.8%

HT/FT Home/Home73.9%

HT Over 1.570.0%

2nd Half More Goals50.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.0%

HT Both Teams Score29.4%

HT Draw17.7%

Equal Goals Each Half17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT Under 0.58.7%

HT Away Win6.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Away/Away1.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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