Scotland · Premiership

ST Mirren vs Dundee

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 24

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

ST Mirren 45.1% Draw 27.1% Dundee 27.7%

Over 2.5 - 43% BTTS - 64%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

78%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

64%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to ST Mirren: 13 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.3%

Exact-score model probability

ST Mirren

L W D W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 8:4 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.67

Dundee

D L W L W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

ST Mirren 1wins ·1 draws ·Dundee 3wins

ST Mirren 0-1 DundeeMay 2, 2026

ST Mirren 0-0 DundeeJan 31, 2026

ST Mirren 1-3 DundeeNov 29, 2025

ST Mirren 1-0 DundeeSep 27, 2025

ST Mirren 0-2 DundeeApr 5, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

ST Mirren win45.1%

Draw27.1%

Dundee win27.7%

Over 1.5 goals68.7%

Over 2.5 goals42.5%

Over 3.5 goals21.7%

Both teams to score63.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.5%

Home or Draw (1X)75.8%

Draw No Bet - Home68.8%

Both Halves Over 0.561.4%

Goal in Both Halves61.4%

Home Win53.3%

Draw or Away (X2)46.6%

Draw No Bet - Away31.2%

Away Win24.2%

Draw22.4%

Exactly 1 Goal14.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.4%

Under 5.5 Goals90.7%

Over 1.5 Goals81.4%

Under 4.5 Goals80.0%

Under 3.5 Goals62.7%

2-4 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals59.7%

1-3 Goals58.1%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.1%

Under 2.5 Goals40.3%

3-4 Goals39.7%

Over 3.5 Goals37.3%

4+ Goals37.3%

1-2 Goals35.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals21.7%

Over 4.5 Goals20.0%

Under 1.5 Goals18.6%

Over 5.5 Goals9.3%

Under 0.5 Goals4.6%

Exactly 0 Goals4.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.8%

Away Team to Score70.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.6%

Home Clean Sheet30.0%

Home Win to Nil25.5%

Away Clean Sheet15.1%

Away Win to Nil10.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.8%

Away Over 0.570.0%

Home Over 1.556.3%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Away Over 1.533.9%

Away Exactly 030.0%

Home Over 2.529.3%

Home 3+ Goals29.3%

Home Exactly 128.6%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 221.7%

Home Exactly 015.1%

Away Over 2.512.1%

Away 3+ Goals12.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)69.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away69.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)53.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)46.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away46.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.8%

Home to win by 122.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 216.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.5%

Away to win by 114.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.3%

Home to win by 3+14.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.6%

Away to win by 26.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.1%

Away to win by 3+3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.549.1%

Home & Over 2.536.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.530.0%

Home & BTTS27.9%

Home & No BTTS25.5%

Draw & BTTS17.9%

Home & Under 2.516.7%

Away & Over 2.515.4%

Draw & Under 2.514.9%

Away & BTTS13.6%

Away & No BTTS10.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.6%

BTTS & Under 2.510.3%

Away & Under 2.58.8%

Draw & Over 2.57.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.1%

HT Under 1.559.5%

2nd Half More Goals44.9%

HT Over 1.540.5%

HT Home Win40.4%

HT Draw37.7%

HT/FT Home/Home33.6%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.524.9%

HT Both Teams Score23.9%

Equal Goals Each Half23.6%

HT Away Win21.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.5%

HT/FT Away/Away13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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