Scotland · Premiership

ST Mirren vs Motherwell

Kick-off 15:00 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

ST Mirren 27.9% Draw 30.6% Motherwell 41.6%

Over 2.5 - 35% BTTS - 36%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

64%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 17%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to ST Mirren: 14 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

17%

Exact-score model probability

ST Mirren

W W W D D W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 8:2 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.33

Motherwell

L W D D W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 9:5 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

ST Mirren 0wins ·2 draws ·Motherwell 3wins

ST Mirren 0-5 MotherwellFeb 21, 2026

ST Mirren 0-2 MotherwellJan 3, 2026

ST Mirren 0-0 MotherwellAug 9, 2025

ST Mirren 2-2 MotherwellMar 15, 2025

ST Mirren 0-1 MotherwellDec 7, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

ST Mirren win27.9%

Draw30.6%

Motherwell win41.6%

Over 1.5 goals62.4%

Over 2.5 goals35.0%

Over 3.5 goals16.1%

Both teams to score35.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

91.5%

Over 0.5 Goals

90.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)90.4%

Draw No Bet - Away87.9%

Home or Away (12)79.5%

Away Win69.9%

Both Halves Over 0.548.3%

Goal in Both Halves48.3%

Home or Draw (1X)30.1%

Exactly 1 Goal21.8%

Draw20.5%

Draw No Bet - Home12.1%

Home Win9.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.5%

Over 0.5 Goals90.9%

Under 4.5 Goals90.5%

Under 3.5 Goals78.0%

Over 1.5 Goals69.0%

1-3 Goals68.9%

2-4 Goals59.5%

Under 2.5 Goals57.1%

Total Goals Even50.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

1-2 Goals48.0%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals42.9%

3-4 Goals33.4%

Under 1.5 Goals31.0%

Exactly 2 Goals26.1%

Over 3.5 Goals22.0%

4+ Goals22.0%

Exactly 3 Goals20.9%

Over 4.5 Goals9.5%

Under 0.5 Goals9.1%

Exactly 0 Goals9.1%

Over 5.5 Goals3.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score84.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)65.5%

Away Clean Sheet59.1%

Away Win to Nil50.0%

Home Team to Score40.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)34.5%

Home Clean Sheet15.4%

Home Win to Nil6.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.584.6%

Home Exactly 059.1%

Away Over 1.555.8%

Home Over 0.540.8%

Home Exactly 131.1%

Away Over 2.528.8%

Away Exactly 128.8%

Away 3+ Goals28.8%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 015.4%

Home Over 1.59.8%

Home Exactly 28.2%

Home Over 2.51.6%

Home 3+ Goals1.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home91.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)90.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away90.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)78.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home78.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)69.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)57.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home57.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)43.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away43.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)30.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home30.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw26.9%

Away to win by 126.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw21.8%

Away to win by 221.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)21.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away21.1%

Away to win by 3+21.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw12.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)9.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.6%

Home to win by 17.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home2.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.7%

Home to win by 21.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.3%

Home to win by 3+0.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & No BTTS50.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.548.2%

Away & Over 2.536.9%

Away & Under 2.533.0%

BTTS & Over 2.525.6%

Away & BTTS19.8%

Draw & Under 2.518.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.3%

Draw & BTTS11.4%

BTTS & Under 2.59.0%

Home & No BTTS6.3%

Home & Under 2.56.0%

Home & Over 2.53.6%

Home & BTTS3.3%

Draw & Over 2.52.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.570.7%

HT Over 0.566.0%

HT Away Win48.9%

HT/FT Away/Away45.5%

2nd Half More Goals42.1%

HT Draw41.1%

HT Under 0.534.0%

1st Half More Goals30.5%

HT Over 1.529.3%

Equal Goals Each Half27.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away22.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.5%

HT Both Teams Score12.0%

HT Home Win10.0%

HT/FT Home/Home4.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

HT/FT Away/Home0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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