Scotland · Premiership

ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Aug 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

ST Mirren 47.8% Draw 28.2% ST Johnstone 23.9%

Over 2.5 - 40% BTTS - 52%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 69%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 11.5%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to ST Mirren: 11 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.5%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

69%

Market does not fully agree

ST Mirren

W W D D W L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 7:5 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.83

ST Johnstone

W L L W L L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 9:13 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 5

ST Mirren 3wins ·0 draws ·ST Johnstone 2wins

ST Mirren 0-1 ST JohnstoneFeb 1, 2025

ST Mirren 3-2 ST JohnstoneDec 14, 2024

ST Mirren 3-1 ST JohnstoneOct 30, 2024

ST Mirren 2-0 ST JohnstoneFeb 24, 2024

ST Mirren 0-1 ST JohnstoneDec 6, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

ST Mirren win47.8%

Draw28.2%

ST Johnstone win23.9%

Over 1.5 goals67.3%

Over 2.5 goals40.3%

Over 3.5 goals20.0%

Both teams to score52.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

86.0%

Home Over 0.5

86.0%

Under 4.5 Goals

84.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)83.9%

Draw No Bet - Home79.6%

Home or Away (12)78.8%

Home Win62.8%

Both Halves Over 0.557.0%

Goal in Both Halves57.0%

Draw or Away (X2)37.2%

Draw21.1%

Draw No Bet - Away20.4%

Exactly 1 Goal16.6%

Away Win16.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.1%

Under 5.5 Goals93.1%

Under 4.5 Goals84.1%

Over 1.5 Goals77.6%

Under 3.5 Goals68.3%

1-3 Goals62.4%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals54.0%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals46.0%

2-3 Goals45.9%

1-2 Goals40.1%

3-4 Goals38.2%

Over 3.5 Goals31.7%

4+ Goals31.7%

Exactly 2 Goals23.5%

Under 1.5 Goals22.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals15.9%

Over 5.5 Goals6.9%

Under 0.5 Goals5.9%

Exactly 0 Goals5.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score86.0%

Away Team to Score58.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)50.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)49.8%

Home Clean Sheet41.6%

Home Win to Nil35.8%

Away Clean Sheet14.0%

Away Win to Nil8.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.586.0%

Home Over 1.558.4%

Away Over 0.558.4%

Away Exactly 041.6%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Home Over 2.531.4%

Home 3+ Goals31.4%

Home Exactly 127.5%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Over 1.521.9%

Away Exactly 216.0%

Home Exactly 014.0%

Away Over 2.55.9%

Away 3+ Goals5.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)81.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away81.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)62.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)61.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away61.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)38.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home38.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)37.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away37.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.6%

Home to win by 124.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 219.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)18.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home18.9%

Home to win by 3+18.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.0%

Away to win by 111.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.8%

Away to win by 23.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.2%

Away to win by 3+1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.540.2%

Home & Over 2.540.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.9%

Home & No BTTS35.8%

Home & BTTS27.0%

Home & Under 2.522.7%

Draw & Under 2.515.9%

Draw & BTTS15.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.9%

BTTS & Under 2.510.0%

Away & Over 2.58.7%

Away & No BTTS8.2%

Away & BTTS7.9%

Away & Under 2.57.4%

Draw & Over 2.55.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.2%

HT Under 1.563.4%

HT Home Win45.8%

2nd Half More Goals44.0%

HT/FT Home/Home40.6%

HT Draw38.4%

HT Over 1.536.6%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Under 0.527.8%

Equal Goals Each Half24.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.3%

HT Both Teams Score19.1%

HT Away Win15.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.8%

HT/FT Away/Away8.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

ST Mirren win45%

Draw45%

ST Johnstone win10%

AdviceCombo Double chance : ST Mirren or draw and +1.5 goals

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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