Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise

Kick-off 19:30 · Wed, Sep 2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

St. Truiden 21.7% Draw 29.1% Union St. Gilloise 49.2%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 82%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 50.8% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 49.2% on the only losing outcome.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to St. Truiden: 11 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

50.8%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

49.2%

Only the uncovered result loses

St. Truiden

W W D D W L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Union St. Gilloise

D L W D W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 15:8 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

St. Truiden 1wins ·0 draws ·Union St. Gilloise 4wins

St. Truiden 2-1 Union St. GilloiseMay 2, 2026

St. Truiden 0-1 Union St. GilloiseApr 4, 2026

St. Truiden 1-3 Union St. GilloiseMar 22, 2026

St. Truiden 0-2 Union St. GilloiseOct 26, 2025

St. Truiden 1-2 Union St. GilloiseFeb 2, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

St. Truiden win21.7%

Draw29.1%

Union St. Gilloise win49.2%

Over 1.5 goals68.7%

Over 2.5 goals90.9%

Over 3.5 goals20.6%

Both teams to score81.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

89.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.7%

Both Halves Over 0.577.8%

Goal in Both Halves77.8%

Home or Draw (1X)75.7%

Draw No Bet - Home70.5%

Home Win57.6%

Draw or Away (X2)42.3%

Draw No Bet - Away29.5%

Away Win24.1%

Draw18.2%

Exactly 1 Goal5.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals92.8%

Over 2.5 Goals80.4%

Under 5.5 Goals73.4%

Over 3.5 Goals62.5%

4+ Goals62.5%

Under 4.5 Goals56.8%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals49.5%

Over 4.5 Goals43.2%

Under 3.5 Goals37.5%

3-4 Goals37.2%

1-3 Goals36.0%

2-3 Goals30.2%

Over 5.5 Goals26.6%

Under 2.5 Goals19.6%

1-2 Goals18.1%

Exactly 3 Goals17.9%

Exactly 2 Goals12.4%

Under 1.5 Goals7.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.6%

Away Team to Score81.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)75.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)24.4%

Home Clean Sheet18.3%

Home Win to Nil16.9%

Away Clean Sheet7.2%

Away Win to Nil5.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.6%

Away Over 0.581.6%

Home Over 1.573.6%

Away Over 1.550.5%

Home Over 2.548.6%

Home 3+ Goals48.6%

Away Exactly 131.0%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Home Exactly 225.0%

Away Over 2.524.2%

Away 3+ Goals24.2%

Home Exactly 119.0%

Away Exactly 018.3%

Home Exactly 07.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)78.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away78.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)62.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away62.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)57.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)42.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away42.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)24.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)21.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home21.4%

Home to win by 3+21.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.7%

Home to win by 119.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.5%

Home to win by 216.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.7%

Away to win by 112.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.9%

Away to win by 26.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.5%

Away to win by 3+4.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.7%

Home & Over 2.549.5%

Home & BTTS40.6%

Away & Over 2.519.9%

Away & BTTS18.2%

Home & No BTTS16.9%

Draw & BTTS16.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.5%

Draw & Over 2.510.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.7%

Home & Under 2.58.0%

Draw & Under 2.57.2%

Away & No BTTS5.9%

BTTS & Under 2.55.9%

Away & Under 2.54.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.7%

HT Over 1.557.9%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Home Win45.7%

HT Under 1.542.1%

HT/FT Home/Home38.2%

HT Both Teams Score37.0%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw30.4%

HT Away Win23.8%

Equal Goals Each Half19.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.9%

HT Under 0.514.3%

HT/FT Away/Away14.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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