Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

Standard Liege vs Charleroi

Kick-off 12:30 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

34% confidence

Standard Liege 34.2% Draw 32.9% Charleroi 32.9%

Over 2.5 - 47% BTTS - 41%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

67%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 15.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Charleroi: 9 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

15.3%

Exact-score model probability

Standard Liege

D D L W D W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Charleroi

W W W D L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 8:3 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.5

Head to head · last 5

Standard Liege 2wins ·0 draws ·Charleroi 3wins

Standard Liege 0-2 CharleroiMay 23, 2026

Standard Liege 2-1 CharleroiApr 18, 2026

Standard Liege 0-2 CharleroiJan 18, 2026

Standard Liege 3-1 CharleroiOct 31, 2025

Standard Liege 0-1 CharleroiMay 4, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Standard Liege win34.2%

Draw32.9%

Charleroi win32.9%

Over 1.5 goals62.6%

Over 2.5 goals46.6%

Over 3.5 goals15.6%

Both teams to score41.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

91.0%

Under 4.5 Goals

90.3%

Draw or Away (X2)

84.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)84.9%

Draw No Bet - Away80.3%

Home or Away (12)76.5%

Away Win61.4%

Both Halves Over 0.548.6%

Goal in Both Halves48.6%

Home or Draw (1X)38.6%

Draw23.5%

Exactly 1 Goal21.7%

Draw No Bet - Home19.7%

Home Win15.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.4%

Over 0.5 Goals91.0%

Under 4.5 Goals90.3%

Under 3.5 Goals77.7%

Over 1.5 Goals69.3%

1-3 Goals68.7%

2-4 Goals59.6%

Under 2.5 Goals56.8%

Total Goals Even50.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

1-2 Goals47.8%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals43.2%

3-4 Goals33.6%

Under 1.5 Goals30.7%

Exactly 2 Goals26.1%

Over 3.5 Goals22.3%

4+ Goals22.3%

Exactly 3 Goals20.9%

Over 4.5 Goals9.7%

Under 0.5 Goals9.0%

Exactly 0 Goals9.0%

Over 5.5 Goals3.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score81.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)58.7%

Home Team to Score50.5%

Away Clean Sheet49.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)41.3%

Away Win to Nil40.5%

Home Clean Sheet18.2%

Home Win to Nil9.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.581.8%

Away Over 1.550.8%

Home Over 0.550.5%

Home Exactly 049.5%

Home Exactly 134.8%

Away Exactly 131.0%

Away Exactly 226.4%

Away Over 2.524.4%

Away 3+ Goals24.4%

Away Exactly 018.2%

Home Over 1.515.7%

Home Exactly 212.3%

Home Over 2.53.5%

Home 3+ Goals3.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away95.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)84.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away84.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)84.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home84.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)65.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home65.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)61.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)38.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home38.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)34.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away34.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw26.6%

Away to win by 126.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.1%

Away to win by 219.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away15.7%

Away to win by 3+15.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.0%

Home to win by 111.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home4.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.3%

Home to win by 23.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.8%

Home to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.546.0%

Away & No BTTS40.5%

Away & Over 2.533.0%

BTTS & Over 2.530.5%

Away & Under 2.528.4%

Away & BTTS21.0%

Draw & Under 2.519.8%

Draw & BTTS14.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.7%

BTTS & Under 2.510.8%

Home & No BTTS9.2%

Home & Under 2.58.6%

Home & Over 2.56.5%

Home & BTTS5.9%

Draw & Over 2.53.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.570.5%

HT Over 0.566.2%

HT Away Win43.3%

HT Draw42.6%

2nd Half More Goals42.1%

HT/FT Away/Away38.7%

HT Under 0.533.8%

1st Half More Goals30.5%

HT Over 1.529.5%

Equal Goals Each Half27.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away20.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.8%

HT Both Teams Score14.5%

HT Home Win14.1%

HT/FT Home/Home8.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home6.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

HT/FT Away/Home0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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