England · Championship

Stoke City vs Bristol City

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 24

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

72% confidence

Stoke City 71.6% Draw 14.3% Bristol City 14.1%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

86%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Stoke City: 13 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.8%

Exact-score model probability

Stoke City

W L W W W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Bristol City

L L D W L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 3:8 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 1

Stoke City 0wins ·0 draws ·Bristol City 1wins

Stoke City 0-2 Bristol CityMay 2, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Stoke City win71.6%

Draw14.3%

Bristol City win14.1%

Over 1.5 goals96.9%

Over 2.5 goals88.7%

Over 3.5 goals75.4%

Both teams to score78.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

88.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)85.7%

Both Halves Over 0.584.9%

Goal in Both Halves84.9%

Home or Draw (1X)84.6%

Draw No Bet - Home83.2%

Home Win71.3%

Draw or Away (X2)27.7%

Draw No Bet - Away16.8%

Away Win14.4%

Draw13.3%

Exactly 1 Goal3.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals95.5%

Over 2.5 Goals87.8%

Over 3.5 Goals74.6%

4+ Goals74.6%

Under 5.5 Goals59.8%

Over 4.5 Goals57.7%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Under 4.5 Goals42.3%

Over 5.5 Goals40.2%

2-4 Goals37.8%

3-4 Goals30.1%

Under 3.5 Goals25.4%

1-3 Goals23.8%

2-3 Goals20.8%

Exactly 3 Goals13.2%

Under 2.5 Goals12.2%

1-2 Goals10.6%

Exactly 2 Goals7.7%

Under 1.5 Goals4.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

Away Team to Score80.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.3%

Home Clean Sheet18.9%

Home Win to Nil18.3%

Away Clean Sheet3.0%

Away Win to Nil2.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 1.585.4%

Away Over 0.580.1%

Home Over 2.566.9%

Home 3+ Goals66.9%

Away Over 1.548.8%

Away Exactly 131.3%

Away Exactly 225.9%

Away Over 2.522.9%

Away 3+ Goals22.9%

Away Exactly 018.9%

Home Exactly 218.5%

Home Exactly 110.6%

Home Exactly 03.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)77.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away77.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)62.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away62.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)54.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home54.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)44.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away44.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)36.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home36.3%

Home to win by 3+36.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)27.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away27.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)21.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home21.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 217.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 117.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)14.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.1%

Away to win by 18.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.0%

Away to win by 24.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.3%

Away to win by 3+2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.574.3%

Home & Over 2.565.7%

Home & BTTS53.0%

Home & No BTTS18.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.5%

Away & Over 2.512.7%

Draw & BTTS12.7%

Away & BTTS12.0%

Draw & Over 2.59.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.9%

Home & Under 2.55.5%

Draw & Under 2.53.9%

BTTS & Under 2.53.3%

Away & No BTTS2.4%

Away & Under 2.51.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.2%

HT Over 1.567.4%

HT Home Win57.2%

HT/FT Home/Home51.5%

2nd Half More Goals49.9%

HT Both Teams Score41.7%

HT Under 1.532.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw25.2%

HT Away Win17.6%

Equal Goals Each Half17.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.4%

HT Under 0.59.8%

HT/FT Away/Away8.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home5.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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