England · Championship

Stoke City vs Charlton

Kick-off 12:30 · Sat, Sep 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

Stoke City 56.1% Draw 19.5% Charlton 24.4%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 78%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Charlton: 7 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.3%

Exact-score model probability

Stoke City

W L D L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:10 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Charlton

D W L W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:9 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Stoke City win56.1%

Draw19.5%

Charlton win24.4%

Over 1.5 goals94.5%

Over 2.5 goals82.4%

Over 3.5 goals65.4%

Both teams to score78.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

89.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.8%

Both Halves Over 0.579.3%

Goal in Both Halves79.3%

Home or Draw (1X)74.7%

Draw No Bet - Home69.3%

Home Win56.7%

Draw or Away (X2)43.1%

Draw No Bet - Away30.7%

Away Win25.1%

Draw18.0%

Exactly 1 Goal5.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals93.6%

Over 2.5 Goals82.3%

Under 5.5 Goals70.8%

Over 3.5 Goals65.3%

4+ Goals65.3%

Under 4.5 Goals53.7%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals47.3%

Over 4.5 Goals46.3%

3-4 Goals36.0%

Under 3.5 Goals34.7%

1-3 Goals33.4%

Over 5.5 Goals29.2%

2-3 Goals28.3%

Under 2.5 Goals17.7%

Exactly 3 Goals17.0%

1-2 Goals16.4%

Exactly 2 Goals11.3%

Under 1.5 Goals6.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.0%

Away Team to Score83.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.4%

Home Clean Sheet16.5%

Home Win to Nil15.4%

Away Clean Sheet6.8%

Away Win to Nil5.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.0%

Away Over 0.583.3%

Home Over 1.574.7%

Away Over 1.553.5%

Home Over 2.550.1%

Home 3+ Goals50.1%

Away Exactly 129.7%

Away Over 2.526.8%

Away 3+ Goals26.8%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Home Exactly 224.6%

Home Exactly 118.3%

Away Exactly 016.5%

Home Exactly 06.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)78.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away78.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)62.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away62.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)56.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)43.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away43.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)21.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home21.2%

Home to win by 3+21.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 119.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 216.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.9%

Away to win by 112.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.2%

Away to win by 27.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.0%

Away to win by 3+5.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.572.1%

Home & Over 2.549.6%

Home & BTTS41.3%

Away & Over 2.521.3%

Away & BTTS19.4%

Draw & BTTS16.9%

Home & No BTTS15.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.1%

Draw & Over 2.511.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.1%

Home & Under 2.57.1%

Draw & Under 2.56.6%

Away & No BTTS5.7%

BTTS & Under 2.55.5%

Away & Under 2.53.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.7%

HT Over 1.559.9%

2nd Half More Goals48.6%

HT Home Win45.4%

HT Under 1.540.1%

HT Both Teams Score38.9%

HT/FT Home/Home37.7%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw29.8%

HT Away Win24.7%

Equal Goals Each Half19.1%

HT/FT Away/Away14.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.5%

HT Under 0.513.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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