England · Championship

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Oct 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

64% confidence

Stoke City 64.0% Draw 17.2% Middlesbrough 18.8%

Over 2.5 - 85% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 6.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Stoke City: 16 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.9%

Exact-score model probability

Stoke City

W W W D W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.67

Middlesbrough

D D W L W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Stoke City win64.0%

Draw17.2%

Middlesbrough win18.8%

Over 1.5 goals95.6%

Over 2.5 goals85.2%

Over 3.5 goals69.6%

Both teams to score78.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.7%

HT Over 0.5

88.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)83.7%

Both Halves Over 0.581.7%

Goal in Both Halves81.7%

Home or Draw (1X)80.2%

Draw No Bet - Home76.8%

Home Win64.3%

Draw or Away (X2)35.3%

Draw No Bet - Away23.2%

Away Win19.4%

Draw15.9%

Exactly 1 Goal4.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals94.6%

Over 2.5 Goals84.8%

Over 3.5 Goals69.3%

4+ Goals69.3%

Under 5.5 Goals66.5%

Over 4.5 Goals50.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 4.5 Goals49.1%

2-4 Goals43.6%

3-4 Goals33.8%

Over 5.5 Goals33.5%

Under 3.5 Goals30.7%

1-3 Goals29.4%

2-3 Goals25.3%

Exactly 3 Goals15.5%

Under 2.5 Goals15.2%

1-2 Goals13.9%

Exactly 2 Goals9.8%

Under 1.5 Goals5.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score81.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.5%

Home Clean Sheet18.1%

Home Win to Nil17.3%

Away Clean Sheet4.8%

Away Win to Nil3.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Away Over 0.581.5%

Home Over 1.580.3%

Home Over 2.558.2%

Home 3+ Goals58.2%

Away Over 1.550.6%

Away Exactly 130.9%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Away Over 2.524.3%

Away 3+ Goals24.3%

Home Exactly 222.1%

Away Exactly 018.1%

Home Exactly 114.5%

Home Exactly 04.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)84.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away84.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)71.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away71.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)64.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)54.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away54.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)45.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home45.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)35.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away35.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)28.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home28.1%

Home to win by 3+28.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.8%

Home to win by 118.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 217.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home15.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.5%

Away to win by 110.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.5%

Away to win by 25.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.4%

Away to win by 3+3.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.573.0%

Home & Over 2.557.6%

Home & BTTS47.0%

Home & No BTTS17.3%

Away & Over 2.516.6%

Away & BTTS15.5%

Draw & BTTS15.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.8%

Draw & Over 2.510.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.3%

Home & Under 2.56.7%

Draw & Under 2.55.4%

BTTS & Under 2.54.5%

Away & No BTTS3.9%

Away & Under 2.52.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.2%

HT Over 1.562.9%

HT Home Win51.1%

2nd Half More Goals49.2%

HT/FT Home/Home44.4%

HT Both Teams Score39.9%

HT Under 1.537.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw27.9%

HT Away Win21.0%

Equal Goals Each Half18.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.2%

HT Under 0.511.8%

HT/FT Away/Away11.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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