England · Championship

Stoke City vs Norwich

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Sep 1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

65% confidence

Stoke City 65.1% Draw 17.6% Norwich 17.3%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Norwich: 4 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.7%

Exact-score model probability

Stoke City

L D L L W L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:12 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

Norwich

W W L L W L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 12:10 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Stoke City win65.1%

Draw17.6%

Norwich win17.3%

Over 1.5 goals94.1%

Over 2.5 goals81.6%

Over 3.5 goals64.3%

Both teams to score74.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

92.0%

HT Over 0.5

86.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)83.5%

Home or Draw (1X)81.8%

Both Halves Over 0.578.7%

Goal in Both Halves78.7%

Draw No Bet - Home78.6%

Home Win65.6%

Draw or Away (X2)34.1%

Draw No Bet - Away21.4%

Away Win17.9%

Draw16.2%

Exactly 1 Goal5.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals93.2%

Over 2.5 Goals81.4%

Under 5.5 Goals72.0%

Over 3.5 Goals64.1%

4+ Goals64.1%

Under 4.5 Goals55.1%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-4 Goals48.2%

Over 4.5 Goals44.9%

3-4 Goals36.5%

Under 3.5 Goals35.9%

1-3 Goals34.4%

2-3 Goals29.1%

Over 5.5 Goals28.0%

Under 2.5 Goals18.6%

Exactly 3 Goals17.3%

1-2 Goals17.1%

Exactly 2 Goals11.8%

Under 1.5 Goals6.8%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.2%

Away Team to Score77.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)26.4%

Home Clean Sheet21.8%

Home Win to Nil20.6%

Away Clean Sheet5.5%

Away Win to Nil4.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.2%

Home Over 1.578.2%

Away Over 0.577.9%

Home Over 2.555.1%

Home 3+ Goals55.1%

Away Over 1.544.7%

Away Exactly 133.1%

Away Exactly 225.2%

Home Exactly 223.2%

Away Exactly 021.8%

Away Over 2.519.6%

Away 3+ Goals19.6%

Home Exactly 116.0%

Home Exactly 05.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)84.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away84.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)71.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away71.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)65.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)53.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away53.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)46.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home46.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)34.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away34.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)28.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home28.1%

Home to win by 3+28.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.4%

Home to win by 119.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 218.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home14.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.2%

Away to win by 110.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.0%

Away to win by 25.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.7%

Away to win by 3+2.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.568.3%

Home & Over 2.557.1%

Home & BTTS45.0%

Home & No BTTS20.6%

Draw & BTTS15.0%

Away & Over 2.514.7%

Away & BTTS13.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.0%

Draw & Over 2.59.7%

Home & Under 2.58.6%

Draw & Under 2.56.5%

BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Away & No BTTS4.3%

Away & Under 2.53.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.3%

HT Over 1.559.1%

HT Home Win51.5%

2nd Half More Goals48.5%

HT/FT Home/Home45.1%

HT Under 1.540.9%

HT Both Teams Score36.1%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw28.9%

HT Away Win19.6%

Equal Goals Each Half19.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.0%

HT Under 0.513.7%

HT/FT Away/Away10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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